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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4th or lower | 100% | +1 pts | +1 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 1st hottest | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 2nd hottest | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 3rd hottest | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 197d | StreamTurbine | 4th or lower | SellYes>99¢ | $1,558 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 198d | OliviaOrterno | 2nd hottest | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,011 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 213d | 3874110074156118140922178973873 fills | 1st hottest | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,898 | +$133 +3.4% | 4 |
| 214d | 387411007415611814092217897387 | 2nd hottest | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 224d | Bite-Sized-PoundingNew account | 2nd hottest | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,274 | −$12 −0.9% | — |
| 224d | Total-FailNew account | 2nd hottest | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,606 | −$15 −0.9% | — |
| 224d | Needy-PillNew account | 3rd hottest | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,152 | −$12 −1.0% | — |
| 224d | Vigilant-AllowanceNew account | 3rd hottest | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,114 | −$11 −1.0% | — |
| 224d | Vigilant-AllowanceNew account | 3rd hottest | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,113 | +$12 +1.1% | 5 |
| 224d | Needy-PillNew account | 3rd hottest | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,151 | +$13 +1.1% | 5 |
| 224d | Spanish-AnguishNew account | 3rd hottest | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,043 | +$12 +1.1% | 5 |
| 224d | Apprehensive-AttachmentNew account | 2nd hottest | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,237 | −$10 −0.8% | — |
| 224d | Apprehensive-AttachmentNew account | 2nd hottest | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,235 | +$12 +1.0% | 5 |
| 224d | Giddy-SuitNew account | 3rd hottest | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,540 | −$20 −1.3% | — |
| 224d | Variable-JumpNew account | 3rd hottest | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,492 | −$20 −1.3% | — |
| 224d | Daring-SubsidenceNew account | 3rd hottest | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,023 | −$27 −1.3% | — |
| 224d | Giddy-SuitNew account | 3rd hottest | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,538 | +$22 +1.4% | 5 |
| 224d | Variable-JumpNew account | 3rd hottest | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,491 | +$21 +1.4% | 5 |
| 225d | 387411007415611814092217897387 | 4th or lower | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,320 | +$55 +2.4% | 4 |
| 225d | Teeming-ConfirmationNew account | 3rd hottest | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,097 | +$21 +1.9% | 5 |
| 226d | 67Shadow | 4th or lower | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,600 | +$69 +2.7% | 4 |
| 228d | Stimulating-Solidarity | 1st hottest | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,486 | +$35 +1.4% | 4 |
| 228d | Uneven-Commission | 1st hottest | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,543 | +$36 +1.4% | 4 |
| 229d | 3874110074156118140922178973872 fills | 3rd hottest | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,498 | +$48 +1.1% | 4 |
| 238d |  timesoft | 4th or lower | SellNo63¢ → 0¢ | $5,588 | +$5,588 +100% | — |
| 238d | timesoft | 4th or lower | BuyNo89¢ → 0¢ | $7,894 | −$7,894 −100% | 4 |
Pshenichka82 shares
ra5tadark40 sharesThis market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record. Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 4th or lower means the market gives it about 100%.