Polymarket · Tech & ScienceClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 24 | 100% | +69 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 31 | 100% | +34 pts | — | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
On July 12, 2026, Anthropic announced that it was extending access to Claude Fable 5 on all paid plans through July 19, 2026, ahead of the previously scheduled cutoff after which the model would move to usage-credit-only billing (https://x.com/claudeai/status/2076351399999557669). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic announces that access to "Claude Fable 5" will remain permanently or indefinitely included on qualifying paid plans, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying announcement requires Fable 5 to remain included in standard usage limits, without requiring usage credits for baseline access, on at least one of the Pro, Max, or Team plans. An announcement covering all paid plans does qualify. An announcement covering only the Enterprise plan does not qualify. An announcement extending access only through a specified date or for another temporary period will not qualify. Access described as permanent, indefinite, ongoing, or continuing without a stated expiration will qualify. Continued or extended access without a qualifying public announcement from Anthropic will not qualify. The percentage cap itself is irrelevant to qualification (higher, lower, unchanged, or removed all count), so long as some portion of the included allowance can be spent on Fable without drawing from a usage-credit balance. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for July 24 means the market gives it about 100%.