Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45%+ | 0% | −3 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 35%+ | 100% | +3 pts | +2 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 30%+ | 100% | +1 pts | +1 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 55%+ | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 50%+ | 0% | −2 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 115d |  GollumGekko | 55%+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,171 | +$12 +0.1% | 4 |
| 115d |  The-Joker | 45%+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,220 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 119d |  Writeoff | 45%+ | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,180 | +$67 +3.1% | 5 |
| 122d | Writeoff3 fills | 55%+ | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $5,353 | +$615 +11% | 4 |
| 123d | Writeoff | 50%+ | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,090 | +$157 +14% | 4 |
| 133d | AnonymousElephant69 | 50%+ | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $6,993 | +$3,003 +43% | 4 |
| 138d | The-Joker | 45%+ | SellNo72¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | −$515 −40% | — |
| 147d | Djibooty | 45%+ | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$200 +20% | 4 |
| 184d | 0xAA88grhfr | 35%+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,454 | +$8 +0.1% | 4 |
| 184d |  Hakei. | 35%+ | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,859 | +$31 +1.7% | 4 |
| 191d | RolandChang3 fills | 45%+ | BuyYes92¢ → 0¢ | $4,516 | −$4,516 −100% | 4 |
| 199d | RolandChang2 fills | 35%+ | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,408 | +$91 +3.8% | 4 |
| 218d | bakedapeyachtclub | 45%+ | BuyNo66¢ → 100¢ | $1,424 | +$734 +52% | 4 |
| 248d | Trustinghorse | 30%+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,464 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 249d | MistahFox3 fills | 30%+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,820 | +$13 +0.1% | 4 |
| 249d | Hakei. | 30%+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,487 | +$13 +0.4% | 4 |
| 260d | redberry | 35%+ | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,273 | +$129 +5.7% | 4 |
| 260d |  occasionalAwareness | 30%+ | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,173 | +$111 +9.4% | 4 |
| 265d |  MoneyChanger | 35%+ | BuyNo72¢ → 0¢ | $1,492 | −$1,492 −100% | 4 |
| 266d | MaryGarcia6799 | 45%+ | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,019 | +$166 +16% | 4 |
WindsonC1,448 shares
Rumpelstiltskin1,162 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for 45%+ means the market gives it about 0%.