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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 39% | +10 pts | — | 27¢ · 50¢ (23¢) | — | in 250d |
No trades of $1,000 or more lately.
On October 20, 2026, Wedgewood Polls, a polling firm whose survey results were cited by media outlets and polling aggregators, stated that its published polls had been fabricated as part of what it described as a "social experiment" (see: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/a-company-says-its-polls-were-fake-heres-what-happened). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any individual person in direct connection to the fabricated poll results published by Wedgewood Polls, between market creation and June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 39¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 39%.