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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | +90 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 664d | 0x1C7Ea49c1B1badD8cdDf6fBD3e2cbCaf7fe32 fills | Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,884 | +$16 +0.6% | 4 |
| 664d | leoni | Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,307 | −$12 −0.9% | — |
| 664d | VvVv | Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,315 | +$13 +1.0% | 4 |
| 664d |  carp2 fills | Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,919 | +$48 +1.6% | 4 |
| 664d |  RememberAmalek | Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $11,413 | +$133 +1.2% | 4 |
| 664d | ktainted | Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,631 | −$48 −3.0% | — |
| 664d | Ordon | Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,632 | +$112 +3.1% | 5 |
| 664d |  aenews2 | Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $2,744 | +$280 +10% | 6 |
| 664d | greengasper | Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | SellYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,470 | −$233 −16% | — |
| 664d | NELF | Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | BuyYes66¢ → 100¢ | $1,958 | +$990 +51% | 9 |
| 664d | NELF | Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | SellNo62¢ → 0¢ | $1,958 | +$1,958 +100% | — |
| 664d |  PLAYMONEY | Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | SellNo94¢ → 0¢ | $1,602 | +$1,602 +100% | — |
| 664d | cqs | Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | BuyNo95¢ → 0¢ | $1,425 | −$1,425 −100% | 5 |
| 664d | NELF | Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | BuyNo94¢ → 0¢ | $1,334 | −$1,334 −100% | 5 |
| 665d |  GoriIIa | Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | BuyNo83¢ → 0¢ | $1,990 | −$1,990 −100% | 5 |
| 665d |  mr.ozi | Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | BuyNo73¢ → 0¢ | $1,466 | −$1,466 −100% | 6 |
| 666d |  Mitt77 | Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | SellYes54¢ → 100¢ | $1,104 | −$959 −87% | — |
| 666d | Trump1 | Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,644 | +$453 +28% | 5 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of Azerbaijan explicitly claims Russia is responsible for the downing of Flight J2-8243 on December 25, 2024, by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Claims can come from statements by the Azeri government, military, or intelligence services. Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Azerbaijan, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.