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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal | 74% | +1 pts | — | 73¢ · 74¢ (1¢) | $3.83K | in 68d |
| Kylian Mbappé | 11% | −6 pts | — | 10¢ · 11¢ (1¢) | $3.33K | in 68d |
| Harry Kane | 5% | +1 pts | — | 3¢ · 8¢ (5¢) | $1.2K | in 68d |
| Lionel Messi | 5% | −1 pts | — | 3¢ · 7¢ (4¢) | $252 | in 68d |
| Rodri | 3% | −2 pts | — | 1¢ · 5¢ (4¢) | $209 | in 68d |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 2% | 0 pts | — | 1¢ · 4¢ (3¢) | $401 | in 68d |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 2% | 0 pts | — | 1¢ · 3¢ (2¢) | $152 | in 68d |
| Michael Olise | 1% | −2 pts | — | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $563 | in 68d |
| Fabian Ruiz | <1% | 0 pts | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $583 | in 68d |
| Pau Cubarsi | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 68d |
| Erling Haaland | <1% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 68d |
| Jude Bellingham | <1% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 68d |
| Vinícius Júnior | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 68d |
| Declan Rice | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 68d |
| Vitinha | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 68d |
| Achraf Hakimi | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 68d |
| Bruno Fernandes | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 68d |
| Luis Diaz | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 68d |
| Lautaro Martinez | <1% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 68d |
| Marc Cucurella | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 68d |
| Gabriel Magalhães | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 68d |
| Sadio Mané | <1% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 68d |
| Marquinhos | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 68d |
| Nuno Mendes | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 68d |
| João Neves | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 68d |
| Willian Pacho | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 68d |
| Julián Quiñones | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 68d |
| William Saliba | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 68d |
| Ferran Torres | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 68d |
| Dayot Upamecano | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 68d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | OuldLm3alem2 fills | Lamine Yamal | BuyYes72¢ → 74¢ | $4,435 | +$92 +2.1% | 23 |
| 2d |  balthazar | Kylian Mbappé | BuyNo85¢ → 90¢ | $1,055 | +$55 +5.2% | 14 |
| 3d | Aggravating-Lettuce-LocalNew account | Lamine Yamal | BuyYes68¢ → 74¢ | $10,813 | +$903 +8.4% | 39 |
| 4d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Lamine Yamal | SellYes68¢ → 74¢ | $1,108 | −$90 −8.1% | — |
| 4d | 0xFD74d4504299cCE1c537464BdD932F8a0e6bA2a | Lamine Yamal | BuyYes68¢ → 74¢ | $1,171 | +$96 +8.2% | 24 |
| 4d | DragonHoard2 fills | Lamine Yamal | BuyYes63¢ → 74¢ | $8,015 | +$1,303 +16% | 24 |
| 4d | Rundown-Regard | Lamine Yamal | BuyYes58¢ → 74¢ | $1,146 | +$306 +27% | 24 |
Cypya2,474 sharesbalthazar24,553 shares
TimeTraveler4,500 shares
aliiz2,146 sharesThis market will resolve according to the player who finishes in 3rd place in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If two or more players are tied for 3rd place in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's (the award organizer, in partnership with UEFA) official ranking. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If no 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking is published by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 74¢ for Lamine Yamal means the market gives it about 74%.