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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodri | 73% | −3 pts | — | 72¢ · 73¢ (1¢) | $2.18K | in 69d |
| Michael Olise | 9% | −2 pts | — | 5¢ · 12¢ (7¢) | $415 | in 69d |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 7% | +1 pts | — | 3¢ · 10¢ (7¢) | $884 | in 69d |
| Fabian Ruiz | 6% | +1 pts | — | 1¢ · 11¢ (10¢) | $83.9 | in 69d |
| Lionel Messi | 6% | +1 pts | — | 5¢ · 7¢ (2¢) | $153 | in 69d |
| Lamine Yamal | 6% | +1 pts | — | 1¢ · 11¢ (10¢) | $83.9 | in 69d |
| Kylian Mbappé | 6% | +1 pts | — | 4¢ · 7¢ (3¢) | $92.4 | in 69d |
| Vitinha | 4% | −1 pts | — | — · 8¢ | $21 | in 69d |
| Declan Rice | 4% | −2 pts | — | — · 8¢ | $21 | in 69d |
| Lautaro Martinez | 3% | −2 pts | — | — · 7¢ | — | in 69d |
| Julián Quiñones | 3% | −2 pts | — | — · 6¢ | — | in 69d |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 3% | +1 pts | — | <1¢ · 6¢ (6¢) | $96.9 | in 69d |
| Willian Pacho | 2% | −1 pts | — | — · 4¢ | $21 | in 69d |
| Dayot Upamecano | 2% | −3 pts | — | — · 4¢ | $21 | in 69d |
| Marquinhos | 2% | −3 pts | — | — · 3¢ | — | in 69d |
| Ferran Torres | 2% | −3 pts | — | — · 3¢ | — | in 69d |
| Jude Bellingham | 2% | −2 pts | — | — · 3¢ | — | in 69d |
| Harry Kane | 1% | −1 pts | — | <1¢ · 2¢ (2¢) | $63.9 | in 69d |
| Erling Haaland | <1% | −2 pts | — | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $63.9 | in 69d |
| Pau Cubarsi | <1% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | $21 | in 69d |
| Vinícius Júnior | <1% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | $33.9 | in 69d |
| Achraf Hakimi | <1% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | $21 | in 69d |
| Bruno Fernandes | <1% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | $21 | in 69d |
| Luis Diaz | <1% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | $21 | in 69d |
| Marc Cucurella | <1% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | $21 | in 69d |
| Gabriel Magalhães | <1% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | $21 | in 69d |
| Sadio Mané | <1% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | $21 | in 69d |
| Nuno Mendes | <1% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | $21 | in 69d |
| João Neves | <1% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | $21 | in 69d |
| William Saliba | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | OuldLm3alem | Rodri | BuyYes74¢ → 73¢ | $2,066 | −$33 −1.6% | 22 |
Cypya1,831 shares
Cypyi466 shares
TimeTraveler5,731 shares
tescat410 shares
Haradwaith292 sharesThis market will resolve according to the player who finishes in 4th place in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If two or more players are tied for 4th place in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's (the award organizer, in partnership with UEFA) official ranking. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If no 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking is published by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 73¢ for Rodri means the market gives it about 73%.