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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberals 25–49 | 100% | +96 pts | +79 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Liberals 150+ | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Liberals 125–149 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Liberals 100–124 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Liberals 75–99 | 0% | 0 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Liberals 50–74 | 0% | — | −26 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Liberals 1–24 | 0% | −57 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Conservatives 0–24 (Tie) | 0% | 0 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Conservatives 25–49 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Conservatives 50+ | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 542d | VvVv | Liberals 25–49 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,549 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 542d | FoldingNuts272 | Liberals 25–49 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,348 | +$2 +0.1% | 10 |
| 542d | Ordon | Liberals 25–49 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 10 |
| 542d | VvVv | Liberals 1–24 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,046 | +$4 +0.1% | 10 |
| 542d | rwo | Liberals 25–49 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,986 | +$5 +0.2% | 10 |
| 542d | cigarettes | Liberals 1–24 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,784 | +$16 +0.9% | 10 |
| 542d | 0x65c65De373A10e5f319f722 fills | Liberals 25–49 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,547 | +$59 +1.3% | 10 |
| 542d |  Okokokokokokokokokok | Liberals 25–49 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,283 | −$25 −2.0% | — |
| 542d |  mantou11 | Liberals 25–49 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,376 | −$124 −5.2% | — |
| 542d |  BenjarninNetanyahu | Liberals 25–49 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,024 | +$13 +1.2% | 10 |
| 542d | mantou113 fills | Liberals 25–49 | BuyYes69¢ → 100¢ | $3,475 | +$1,596 +46% | 10 |
| 542d | Okokokokokokokokokok | Liberals 25–49 | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,046 | +$262 +25% | 10 |
| 543d |  beibeidabest | Conservatives 50+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,926 | +$2 +0.1% | 10 |
| 543d | mantou11 | Conservatives 25–49 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,780 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 543d | Okokokokokokokokokok | Liberals 25–49 | BuyNo84¢ → 0¢ | $1,396 | −$1,396 −100% | 10 |
| 543d |  New.Jeans | Liberals 25–49 | BuyNo55¢ → 0¢ | $1,356 | −$1,356 −100% | 10 |
| 543d | iamgone | Liberals 50–74 | BuyNo67¢ → 100¢ | $1,397 | +$688 +49% | 10 |
| 543d | okcoolstorybro6 fills | Conservatives 50+ | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $12,567 | +$422 +3.4% | 10 |
| 543d | visuu | Other | SellNo>99¢ | $1,467 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 543d | visuu | Other | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,468 | +$3 +0.2% | 10 |
| 545d | poopl | Other | SellNo>99¢ | $1,712 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 545d | poopl | Other | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,714 | +$3 +0.2% | 10 |
| 545d | mantou112 fills | Conservatives 25–49 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,388 | +$286 +8.4% | 11 |
| 546d |  VinnyViral | Conservatives 0–24 (Tie) | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,527 | +$148 +9.7% | 11 |
| 546d | tigercager | Conservatives 25–49 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,211 | −$77 −6.3% | — |
| 548d | ImHereForTheRewards | Conservatives 50+ | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,491 | +$38 +2.5% | 10 |
| 551d | RolandChang | Conservatives 50+ | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,315 | +$33 +2.5% | 10 |
| 555d | iamgone | Conservatives 0–24 (Tie) | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,356 | +$200 +15% | 10 |
| 556d | Pyraveth | Liberals 50–74 | SellNo66¢ → 100¢ | $37,459 | −$19,297 −52% | — |
| 556d | Pyraveth | Liberals 50–74 | BuyNo67¢ → 100¢ | $38,033 | +$18,733 +49% | 10 |
The 2025 Canadian federal election will be held on April 28 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats controlled in the House of Commons between the first and second place parties as a result of the next Canadian general election (e.g. Liberals control 190, Conservatives control 100, difference = 90). If neither the Conservative nor Liberal party win the most seats, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Liberals 25–49 means the market gives it about 100%.