Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 737d | Category 5 hurricane hits US before election? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,416 | −$63 −1.8% | — | |
| 742d | Category 5 hurricane hits US before election? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,477 | +$112 +2.5% | 10 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any named tropical system makes landfall in the contiguous United States as a Category 5 hurricane between October 8 and November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If any hurricane makes multiple landfalls in the contiguous United States, each landfall will be considered for the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, hurricane categories are defined by NOAA (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php), and a hurricane landfall is considered to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL). This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC for whether a system has made landfall in the contiguous United States at a strength of category 5, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.