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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Prison Time | 100% | +20 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <5 years | 0% | −19 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 5-10 Years | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| >10 Years | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 678d |  itsfine | No Prison Time | SellYes>99¢ | $4,132 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 678d |  RememberAmalek | No Prison Time | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,547 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 678d | cigarettes | <5 years | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,587 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 678d | cigarettes2 fills | >10 Years | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,676 | +$14 +0.5% | 20 |
| 678d |  ExhaustedBoyBilly3 fills | No Prison Time | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,769 | +$15 +0.3% | 20 |
| 678d |  Infringe | 5-10 Years | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,896 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 678d | ExhaustedBoyBilly | 5-10 Years | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,053 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 678d |  Eridpnc2 fills | No Prison Time | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $6,098 | +$1,360 +22% | 20 |
| 681d |  MMousse3 fills | >10 Years | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,896 | +$26 +0.4% | 20 |
| 681d | MMousse2 fills | 5-10 Years | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,708 | +$37 +0.3% | 20 |
| 682d | itsfine | No Prison Time | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,080 | +$270 +25% | 20 |
| 682d | cigarettes | 5-10 Years | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,089 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
This is a market on the length of prison time Daniel Penny will face following his trial.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for No Prison Time means the market gives it about 100%.