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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| >$5b | 100% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | — | ended |
| <$1b | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | — | ended |
| $1-2b | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | — | ended |
| $2-3b | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | — | ended |
| $3-4b | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | — | ended |
| $4-5b | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 906d | >$5b | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,748 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 906d | $2-3b | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,165 | +$38 +0.4% | 4 | |
| 906d | <$1b | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,126 | +$96 +0.9% | 4 | |
| 910d | $3-4b | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,173 | +$24 +2.0% | 4 | |
| 911d | >$5b | BuyYes52¢ → 100¢ | $1,142 | +$1,058 +93% | 6 | |
| 915d | Q96s3kwozynxpau | $1-2b | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,983 | +$61 +3.1% | 4 |
| 917d | <$1b | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $14,832 | +$599 +4.0% | 4 | |
| 919d | $4-5b | BuyYes20¢ → 0¢ | $1,011 | −$1,011 −100% | 4 | |
| 920d | Subparconductor | >$5b | BuyNo95¢ → 0¢ | $1,277 | −$1,277 −100% | 4 |
| 920d | Subparconductor | $4-5b | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,820 | +$180 +9.9% | 4 |
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Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for >$5b means the market gives it about 100%.