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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 bps decrease | 100% | +1 pts | +4 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 50+ bps decrease | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| No Change | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Increase | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 505d |  xoxoxololxo | 25 bps decrease | SellYes>99¢ | $1,881 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 505d |  meowinglion | 25 bps decrease | SellYes>99¢ | $1,217 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 505d | wokerjoesleeper | 25 bps decrease | SellYes>99¢ | $3,519 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 505d |  imtiredb0ss | 25 bps decrease | SellYes>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 505d |  noreasapa | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,070 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 505d | noreasapa | 25 bps decrease | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,326 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 505d | rspa | 25 bps decrease | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,023 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 505d | cigarettes7 fills | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,243 | +$35 +0.3% | 20 |
| 505d | cigarettes2 fills | No Change | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,722 | +$30 +0.6% | 20 |
| 505d | imtiredb0ss | 25 bps decrease | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,193 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 505d | KunoGreiner | No Change | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,670 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 505d | imtiredb0ss | No Change | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,142 | +$10 +0.9% | 20 |
| 506d |  TeflonMusk | 25 bps decrease | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,983 | +$18 +0.9% | 20 |
| 506d | affs20791 | 25 bps decrease | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,465 | +$35 +0.6% | 20 |
| 506d | nndmg | No Change | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,252 | +$8 +0.7% | 20 |
| 506d | Bukaj | 25 bps decrease | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$30 +1.5% | 20 |
| 506d | exposito | 25 bps decrease | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,871 | +$44 +1.5% | 20 |
| 507d | meowinglion2 fills | No Change | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $24,078 | +$495 +2.1% | 20 |
| 509d | Monster24 | 25 bps decrease | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,006 | +$10 +1.0% | 20 |
| 509d | cigarettes3 fills | Increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,202 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 509d | xoxoxololxo | 25 bps decrease | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,845 | +$38 +1.3% | 20 |
| 510d | meowinglion | 25 bps decrease | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,326 | +$50 +3.7% | 20 |
| 512d | bla23 | 25 bps decrease | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$31 +2.8% | 20 |
| 516d | lindell | Increase | SellNo>99¢ | $1,377 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 517d | DarioFury | Increase | SellNo>99¢ | $1,537 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 517d | lindell | Increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,379 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 517d | DarioFury | Increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,538 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 517d | jolland | Increase | SellNo>99¢ | $1,088 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 517d | jolland | Increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,089 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 529d | graffin | Increase | SellNo>99¢ | $1,066 | −$4 −0.4% | — |
| 531d | ernston | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo100¢ | $1,284 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 |
| 531d | graffin | Increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,067 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 540d | nonkenny902 fills | 25 bps decrease | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $3,584 | +$369 +10% | 20 |
| 542d | garron | Increase | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,704 | −$15 −0.9% | — |
| 543d | garron | Increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,725 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 545d | Hashbrown | 25 bps decrease | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,543 | +$253 +16% | 20 |
| 553d | Orlenis | No Change | SellYes27¢ → 0¢ | $8,862 | +$8,862 +100% | — |
| 553d | Tyrsan | No Change | BuyNo67¢ → 100¢ | $21,992 | +$10,832 +49% | 20 |
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2025 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is information from the ECB released after its meeting scheduled for June 4-5, 2025 according to their official calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official website of the ECB at https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by July 24, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 25 bps decrease means the market gives it about 100%.