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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 200–224 | 100% | +49 pts | +86 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <100 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100–124 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 125–149 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 150–174 | 0% | −33 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 175–199 | 0% | −61 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 225–249 | 0% | −6 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 250–274 | 0% | −1 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 275–299 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300–324 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 325–349 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 350–374 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 375–399 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400+ | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 547d | ANHEL | 200–224 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,707 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 547d | alex4127 | 225–249 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,249 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 547d |  Gustav4 | 200–224 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 547d | ThereIsNoSpoon | 225–249 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,200 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 547d | xx7x | 200–224 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,275 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 547d | leiger2 fills | 225–249 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,262 | +$10 +0.5% | 20 |
| 547d |  Prexpect | 225–249 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,270 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 547d | leiger | 325–349 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,256 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 547d |  BlockBeast | 200–224 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,000 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 547d | Gustav44 fills | 200–224 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,872 | +$55 +0.7% | 20 |
| 547d | kingbin | 275–299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,004 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 547d | Probinhood | 200–224 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,335 | −$77 −5.8% | — |
| 547d |  imp | 200–224 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,758 | −$71 −4.0% | — |
| 547d |  ElonSpam | 225–249 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,097 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 547d | imp2 fills | 200–224 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,668 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 |
| 547d | leiger2 fills | 250–274 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,591 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 547d |  PredictionYogi | 225–249 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,635 | +$42 +0.9% | 20 |
| 547d |  OuchMyBalls | 200–224 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,364 | −$86 −3.6% | — |
| 547d | glarity2 fills | 225–249 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,975 | +$29 +0.6% | 20 |
| 547d | glarity | 275–299 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,385 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 547d | astromage | 225–249 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,905 | +$23 +0.8% | 20 |
| 547d | Frozen-Message | 200–224 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,280 | +$24 +1.1% | 20 |
| 547d | AiLonovMuskovic2 fills | 200–224 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,817 | −$180 −4.7% | — |
| 547d | Gustav4 | 225–249 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,460 | +$50 +3.4% | 20 |
| 547d | PredictionYogi | 200–224 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,411 | +$127 +5.3% | 22 |
| 547d |  leflaive | 200–224 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$85 +5.6% | 22 |
| 547d |  sunflowerboy | 300–324 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,557 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 547d | kingbin | 275–299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,004 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 547d | SirDragon | 175–199 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,108 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 547d | SirDragon | 175–199 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $2,749 | +$362 +13% | 23 |
| 547d | Gustav42 fills | 175–199 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $2,833 | +$504 +18% | 24 |
| 547d | AlexPro | 175–199 | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $2,724 | +$775 +28% | 26 |
| 547d |  jesterthegoose2 fills | 175–199 | BuyNo73¢ → 100¢ | $3,020 | +$1,106 +37% | 27 |
| 547d | Thanatos17 | 225–249 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,025 | +$96 +9.4% | 22 |
| 547d |  Debosnys | 325–349 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,212 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 547d | Debosnys | 275–299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,497 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 547d | jeonghunp2 fills | 225–249 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,210 | +$198 +4.7% | 21 |
| 548d | glarity | 300–324 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,637 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 548d | Poory | 150–174 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,161 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 548d |  Redpigs | 150–174 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,338 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 548d | cipherpilot3 fills | 150–174 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,210 | +$18 +0.4% | 20 |
| 548d | glarity2 fills | 150–174 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,640 | +$17 +0.3% | 20 |
| 548d | astromage | 150–174 | BuyNo100¢ | $2,654 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 |
| 548d | astromage | 250–274 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,088 | +$5 +0.5% | 20 |
| 548d | leiger | 325–349 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,255 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 548d | coolben | 400+ | SellNo>99¢ | $2,122 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 548d | ElonSpam | 150–174 | BuyNo73¢ → 100¢ | $1,297 | +$480 +37% | 25 |
| 548d | coolben2 fills | 125–149 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,902 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 548d |  Mortician | 125–149 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,481 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 548d | leiger | 275–299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,534 | +$11 +0.3% | 20 |
| 548d | Redpigs | 125–149 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,326 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 548d | chocolate123 | 400+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,129 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 549d |  Feniks09 | 400+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,995 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 549d |  AnjelaGangBangchik | 400+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,128 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 549d | leiger2 fills | 125–149 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,240 | +$14 +0.3% | 20 |
| 549d | cipherpilot | 125–149 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,022 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 549d | cipherpilot | 400+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,018 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 549d | glarity | 275–299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,469 | +$20 +0.8% | 20 |
| 549d | leiger | 100–124 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,638 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 549d |  IamNotGood | 100–124 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,398 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between April 18, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and April 25, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 200–224 means the market gives it about 100%.