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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 255+ | 100% | +3 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <90 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90–104 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 105–119 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120–134 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 135–149 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 150–164 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165–179 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180–194 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 195–209 | 0% | −6 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 210–224 | 0% | −8 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 225–239 | 0% | −11 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240–254 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 444d |  dch.sh | 255+ | SellYes>99¢ | $1,459 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 444d | wokerjoesleeper | 255+ | SellYes>99¢ | $1,829 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 444d |  Prexpect2 fills | 255+ | SellYes>99¢ | $13,719 | −$14 −0.1% | — |
| 444d | WuTangClan2 fills | 240–254 | BuyNo>99¢ | $46,937 | +$47 +0.1% | 20 |
| 444d | WuTangClan3 fills | 255+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $30,725 | +$57 +0.2% | 20 |
| 444d | glarity2 fills | 255+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,257 | +$14 +0.2% | 20 |
| 444d | glarity | 240–254 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 444d |  BabyElon | 255+ | SellYes>99¢ | $2,144 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 444d | edison668 | 240–254 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 444d |  PredictionYogi3 fills | 255+ | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $13,386 | −$942 −7.0% | — |
| 444d |  Svarbhanu2 fills | 240–254 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,300 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 444d | pol76 | 255+ | SellYes>99¢ | $1,276 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 444d |  LinaBell🦊 | 255+ | SellYes>99¢ | $4,074 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 444d | Steponme3 fills | 255+ | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $8,561 | −$1,168 −14% | — |
| 444d | KatinaMcgrath | 255+ | SellYes>99¢ | $12,183 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 444d |  vamnizar | 255+ | SellYes>99¢ | $1,527 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 444d | Mmorning1 | 255+ | SellYes>99¢ | $6,294 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 444d | snoozeman0500 | 255+ | SellYes>99¢ | $2,797 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 444d | Rogu | 255+ | SellYes>99¢ | $52,185 | −$52 −0.1% | — |
| 444d |  HolyMoses7 | 255+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,326 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 444d | 0x97cc…bbbf2 fills | 255+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,333 | +$20 +0.2% | 20 |
| 444d | Bitgod | 255+ | SellYes>99¢ | $1,496 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 444d | Poory3 fills | 255+ | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $4,599 | +$137 +3.0% | 20 |
| 444d | Messi010 | 255+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,200 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 444d | Xzu2 fills | 255+ | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $2,676 | −$319 −12% | — |
| 444d | Steponme | 255+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,273 | +$16 +0.5% | 20 |
| 444d |  Elonurmom | 255+ | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,269 | −$18 −0.8% | — |
| 444d | zeus76 | 255+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$9 +0.6% | 20 |
| 444d |  rockstar67 | 255+ | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,397 | −$16 −1.1% | — |
| 444d |  0xc7e84ae3c69f2xe908698ef115364a01de85874f | 255+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,011 | +$7 +0.7% | 20 |
| 444d |  Zighy | 255+ | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,118 | −$21 −1.0% | — |
| 444d | glarity | 225–239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 444d | ShivaLemire2 fills | 255+ | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $4,187 | −$586 −14% | — |
| 444d | astromage | 225–239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,605 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 444d |  ElonSpam7 fills | 255+ | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $46,804 | +$6,794 +15% | 21 |
| 444d | MoRo | 255+ | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,582 | −$22 −1.4% | — |
| 444d | Prexpect2 fills | 255+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,145 | +$33 +1.0% | 20 |
| 444d | edison668 | 225–239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,117 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 444d |  Naichli7 fills | 255+ | BuyYes73¢ → 100¢ | $10,226 | +$3,709 +36% | 22 |
| 444d | Rogu5 fills | 255+ | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $16,144 | +$600 +3.7% | 20 |
| 444d | ihatelee | 225–239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,432 | −$6 −0.4% | — |
| 444d | leiger | 225–239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,396 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 445d | noovd | 255+ | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,071 | −$134 −4.4% | — |
| 445d | snoozeman0500 | 255+ | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,159 | +$46 +4.0% | 20 |
| 445d | zeus76 | 225–239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,697 | +$16 +0.6% | 20 |
| 445d |  RealDonaldMusk | 255+ | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,166 | +$43 +3.7% | 20 |
| 445d | glomshpst | 255+ | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,497 | +$53 +3.5% | 20 |
| 445d | WuTangClan5 fills | 210–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $18,594 | +$22 +0.1% | 20 |
| 445d | yieldfarmer | 255+ | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,992 | +$118 +3.0% | 20 |
| 445d |  Skinfeeler500 | 255+ | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,231 | −$134 −4.1% | — |
| 445d | astromage2 fills | 210–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,102 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 445d |  arcisdead | 255+ | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,544 | +$60 +2.3% | 20 |
| 445d | NeroPlus1 | 210–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,576 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 445d | Buchman | 210–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,608 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 445d | edison668 | 210–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 445d | Poory | 255+ | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,139 | −$60 −5.3% | — |
| 445d |  thefakenick | 255+ | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,229 | +$62 +5.0% | 20 |
| 445d | PredictionYogi3 fills | 255+ | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $7,100 | +$1,228 +17% | 21 |
| 445d |  VibeTrader2 fills | 255+ | SellYes77¢ → 100¢ | $3,571 | −$1,061 −30% | — |
| 445d | Icannotwin | 225–239 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,925 | +$84 +2.9% | 20 |
FreeCityIndividual444 shares
Ernstjunger300 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between August 1, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and August 8, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 255+ means the market gives it about 100%.