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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 360–374 | 100% | +83 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| <255 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 255–269 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 270–284 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 285–299 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 300–314 | 0% | −15 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 315–329 | 0% | −19 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 330–344 | 0% | −27 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 345–359 | 0% | −23 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 375–389 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 390–404 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 405–419 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 420–434 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 435–449 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 450–464 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 465–479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 480–494 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 495–509 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 510+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 442d |  Naichli | 360–374 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 442d | Ma12mamP | 405–419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,695 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 442d | septemberego | 360–374 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,693 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 442d | dropthevictor | 360–374 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,265 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 442d | Muskadelic | 360–374 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,127 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 442d |  Elonurmom | 360–374 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,540 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 442d | Meshugaman | 360–374 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,996 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 442d | snoozeman0500 | 360–374 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,635 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 442d | 0x265f…a448 | 360–374 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,601 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 442d | luoli | 375–389 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,928 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 442d |  noreasapa | 360–374 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,109 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 442d | ShivaLemire | 360–374 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,885 | −$16 −0.4% | — |
| 442d | astromage3 fills | 375–389 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,436 | +$30 +0.3% | 20 |
| 442d | astromage | 420–434 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,867 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 442d |  Prexpect2 fills | 360–374 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,771 | +$17 +0.2% | 20 |
| 442d | Prexpect | 375–389 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,077 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 442d | septemberego | 360–374 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,375 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 442d | astromage | 390–404 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,934 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 442d | noovd | 360–374 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,399 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 |
| 442d |  Parthenope | 375–389 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,691 | +$10 +0.6% | 20 |
| 442d | astromage | 360–374 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,451 | +$15 +1.0% | 20 |
| 442d | snoozeman0500 | 360–374 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,558 | +$80 +2.3% | 21 |
| 442d | astromage | 390–404 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,845 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 442d |  MBB3 | 360–374 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,073 | +$142 +6.9% | 22 |
| 442d | leiger | 450–464 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 442d | leiger | 435–449 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 442d |  ElonSpam | 405–419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,189 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 442d |  Cookedtan2 fills | 405–419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,063 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 442d | Cookedtan2 fills | 375–389 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $3,623 | +$448 +12% | 24 |
| 442d | Cookedtan2 fills | 390–404 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,024 | +$47 +1.2% | 20 |
| 442d | Meshugaman | 360–374 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,866 | +$132 +7.1% | 22 |
| 442d | cipherpilot2 fills | 420–434 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,625 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 442d | cipherpilot | 405–419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,123 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 442d | tigerbearlion2 fills | 360–374 | SellYes75¢ → 100¢ | $6,241 | −$2,047 −33% | — |
| 442d |  BabyElon | 360–374 | SellYes72¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | −$516 −40% | — |
| 442d | ElonSpam | 360–374 | SellYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,198 | −$302 −25% | — |
| 442d | zeus76 | 405–419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,000 | +$15 +0.3% | 20 |
| 442d | zeus76 | 390–404 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$12 +0.6% | 20 |
| 442d |  ahahaa66174 | 345–359 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,498 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 442d | astromage | 345–359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,068 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 442d | ma26 | 345–359 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,257 | −$9 −0.4% | — |
| 442d | Pitter | 360–374 | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,145 | +$244 +21% | 26 |
| 442d | cipherpilot3 fills | 345–359 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $12,776 | +$556 +4.3% | 21 |
| 442d |  Gustav42 fills | 345–359 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $5,988 | +$544 +9.1% | 22 |
| 442d | ma26 | 345–359 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,120 | +$146 +6.9% | 22 |
| 442d |  Oompah..Loompah | 345–359 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,334 | +$118 +8.9% | 23 |
| 442d | AlexPro | 345–359 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,054 | +$97 +9.2% | 23 |
| 442d | Varil | 405–419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,324 | +$16 +0.4% | 20 |
| 442d |  betwick | 345–359 | BuyYes26¢ → 0¢ | $2,800 | −$2,800 −100% | 33 |
| 442d | xbsuwrkfmdl37 | 420–434 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 442d | Naichli | 375–389 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,984 | +$272 +14% | 23 |
| 442d | Naichli | 345–359 | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $2,145 | −$255 −12% | — |
| 442d |  arcisdead | 420–434 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,206 | +$34 +0.5% | 20 |
| 442d | Icannotwin | 390–404 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,084 | +$94 +8.7% | 22 |
| 442d | 0x265f…a448 | 405–419 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,680 | +$132 +4.9% | 21 |
| 442d | astromage | 420–434 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,814 | +$58 +1.2% | 20 |
| 442d | leiger | 450–464 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,119 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 442d | leiger | 435–449 | BuyNo100¢ | $2,985 | +$15 +0.5% | 20 |
| 442d | ElonSpam | 450–464 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,387 | +$13 +0.1% | 20 |
| 442d | glarity | 465–479 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,461 | +$13 +0.1% | 20 |
VibeTrader2,422 shares
TheNoobBeaver378 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between August 1, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and August 8, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 360–374 means the market gives it about 100%.