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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 240-259 | 100% | +79 pts | +92 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | −2 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | −17 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | −28 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −38 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −40 pts | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −30 pts | −19 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −32 pts | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −28 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −39 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −22 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −14 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | −4 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63d | RootWoot | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,480 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 63d |  C6H62 fills | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,785 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 63d | 0x1d94…80da | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,181 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 63d |  upont | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,896 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 63d | upont | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,020 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 63d | Varito29 | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,766 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 63d | XformarlyTwwitterVajdkNnfjdjd | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,393 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 63d |  ProphecyKing | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,444 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 63d | Knowing-Arthur-Ash | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,908 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 63d |  Prexpect2 fills | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $14,721 | +$26 +0.2% | 20 |
| 63d | Admirable-Trust | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,027 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 63d |  LinaBell🦊 | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,032 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 63d |  y111m11 | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,509 | +$6 +0.4% | 20 |
| 63d |  Gustav4 | 240-259 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,011 | +$13 +0.7% | 20 |
| 63d | beatyesterday | 260-279 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,977 | +$23 +1.2% | 20 |
| 63d | Actual-Ladle | 260-279 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,190 | +$35 +1.6% | 21 |
| 63d |  Archeroon | 240-259 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $9,000 | +$358 +4.0% | 21 |
| 63d |  PredictionYogi | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,359 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 63d | 0x212d…64c6 | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,656 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 63d | CakeBake | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,049 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 63d | carboyant | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,318 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 63d | beatyesterday2 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,139 | +$22 +0.2% | 20 |
| 63d | United-Blend | 280-299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$8 +0.6% | 20 |
| 64d |  leleko2k | 280-299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,731 | +$23 +1.3% | 20 |
| 64d | PredictionYogi | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,553 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 64d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 280-299 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,203 | +$27 +2.2% | 21 |
| 64d | BinaryBaron2 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,589 | +$42 +0.5% | 20 |
| 64d | beatyesterday4 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,248 | +$56 +0.5% | 20 |
| 64d | CakeBake3 fills | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,060 | +$27 +0.3% | 20 |
| 64d | anon.1980.123 | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,280 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 64d | Solitude26 | 260-279 | SellYes45¢ → 0¢ | $1,568 | +$1,568 +100% | — |
| 64d | 0x585b…647e2 fills | 300-319 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $5,442 | −$420 −7.7% | — |
| 64d | BinaryBaron3 fills | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,437 | +$16 +0.3% | 20 |
| 64d | mamai | 280-299 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $4,205 | +$251 +6.0% | 22 |
| 64d | ppwins | 240-259 | BuyNo71¢ → 0¢ | $1,500 | −$1,500 −100% | 28 |
| 64d | 0x585b…647e2 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $5,708 | +$154 +2.7% | 21 |
| 64d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,902 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 64d | CakeBake | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,996 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 64d | Solitude26 | 260-279 | BuyYes57¢ → 0¢ | $1,084 | −$1,084 −100% | 28 |
| 64d |  ElonSpam | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,684 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 64d | Solitude26 | 280-299 | SellYes18¢ → 0¢ | $2,083 | +$2,083 +100% | — |
| 64d | RootWoot | 280-299 | BuyNo74¢ → 100¢ | $1,098 | +$383 +35% | 27 |
| 64d | beatyesterday | 340-359 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,988 | +$12 +0.6% | 20 |
| 64d |  lostitall | 280-299 | BuyNo73¢ → 100¢ | $1,333 | +$486 +36% | 27 |
| 64d | lostitall | 240-259 | SellNo82¢ → 0¢ | $1,364 | +$1,364 +100% | — |
| 64d | ElonSpam | 340-359 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,970 | +$30 +0.6% | 20 |
| 64d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,624 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 64d | xiaojido202 | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,992 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 64d | venezuelain | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,993 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 64d |  Elonurmom | 240-259 | BuyNo82¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 25 |
| 64d | CakeBake | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 64d |  Feracios | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,200 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 64d | lostitall | 240-259 | BuyNo80¢ → 0¢ | $1,324 | −$1,324 −100% | 25 |
| 64d | Adorable-Initial2 fills | 260-279 | SellNo58¢ → 100¢ | $3,308 | −$2,400 −73% | — |
| 64d | carboyant | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,544 | +$8 +0.5% | 20 |
| 64d | Plipig | 220-239 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,054 | −$27 −2.6% | — |
| 64d | rebotsliaf | 280-299 | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $1,081 | +$262 +24% | 25 |
| 64d | carboyant | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,713 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 64d | logesh322 fills | 320-339 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,559 | +$91 +3.6% | 21 |
| 64d | Actual-Ladle | 220-239 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,160 | +$35 +1.6% | 20 |
dz1ft5,033 sharesElonurmom4,030 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 14 12:00 PM ET to August 21, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 240-259 means the market gives it about 100%.