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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <250 | 100% | +53 pts | +93 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 250–274 | 0% | −42 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 275–299 | 0% | −7 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300–324 | 0% | −2 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 325–349 | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 350–374 | 0% | — | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 375–399 | 0% | 0 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400–424 | 0% | — | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 425–449 | 0% | — | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 450–474 | 0% | — | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 475–499 | 0% | — | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500–524 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 525–549 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 550–574 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 575–599 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 600–624 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 625–649 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 650+ | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 427d | familyfriendly | <250 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,448 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 427d |  Zighy | <250 | SellYes>99¢ | $12,238 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 427d | timler | <250 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,885 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 427d |  Fieramosca | 300–324 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,031 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 427d | Poiuztrewq | <250 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,008 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 427d | shrosenb | <250 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,207 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 427d |  LinaBell🦊 | <250 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,672 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 427d | Poory2 fills | <250 | SellYes86¢ → 100¢ | $5,677 | −$954 −17% | — |
| 427d | Icannotwin | <250 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,140 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 427d | 0x265f…a448 | <250 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,417 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 427d | aBeanCounter | <250 | BuyYes>99¢ | $13,639 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 427d | Blattazor | 275–299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,621 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 427d |  noreasapa | <250 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 427d | Poory | <250 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,729 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 427d |  shuu | <250 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,039 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 427d | willi98 | <250 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,615 | +$11 +0.4% | 20 |
| 427d |  ElonSpam | <250 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,491 | +$9 +0.6% | 20 |
| 427d | noovd2 fills | <250 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $5,406 | +$552 +10% | 20 |
| 427d | PHYSIOLOGY | <250 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,630 | −$43 −2.6% | — |
| 427d |  ChunkyMonky | <250 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,902 | −$29 −1.5% | — |
| 427d |  MBB3 | <250 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,900 | +$54 +1.9% | 20 |
| 427d | cigarettes | 250–274 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,266 | +$46 +2.0% | 20 |
| 427d | Kubson | <250 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,056 | −$43 −4.1% | — |
| 427d | Hawkie | 275–299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,528 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 428d | KatinaMcgrath | <250 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,468 | +$61 +4.1% | 20 |
| 428d |  Gustav4 | <250 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,354 | +$86 +6.4% | 20 |
| 428d |  BabyElon | <250 | SellYes65¢ → 100¢ | $1,803 | −$961 −53% | — |
| 428d | Icannotwin | <250 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,001 | +$140 +14% | 20 |
| 428d |  TheRedChip2 fills | 275–299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,296 | +$35 +0.8% | 20 |
| 428d | xbsuwrkfmdl374 fills | 300–324 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,934 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 428d | Montegoal | 300–324 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,101 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 428d | zeus76 | 275–299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,316 | +$74 +1.0% | 20 |
| 428d | zeus76 | 325–349 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,316 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 428d | meehai | <250 | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $1,241 | +$525 +42% | 20 |
| 428d |  EverythingAlwaysHappens3 fills | <250 | BuyYes64¢ → 100¢ | $3,736 | +$2,116 +57% | 28 |
| 428d | Unfit-Land | <250 | SellNo51¢ → 0¢ | $1,128 | +$1,128 +100% | — |
| 428d |  vaslevs | <250 | SellYes36¢ → 100¢ | $1,106 | −$2,009 −182% | — |
| 428d |  kysmaybe | 250–274 | BuyYes58¢ → 0¢ | $2,239 | −$2,239 −100% | 28 |
| 428d | kysmaybe | <250 | SellYes45¢ → 100¢ | $1,683 | −$2,077 −123% | — |
| 428d | Hawkie | 275–299 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,305 | +$101 +7.8% | 22 |
| 428d | glarity | 325–349 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,290 | +$25 +0.2% | 20 |
| 428d | astromage | 325–349 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,403 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 428d | leiger | 325–349 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,087 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 428d | AlexPro | <250 | BuyNo54¢ → 0¢ | $2,160 | −$2,160 −100% | 28 |
| 428d | edison668 | 375–399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,491 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 428d | Adishon | 375–399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,758 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 429d | AlexPro | <250 | BuyYes52¢ → 100¢ | $1,273 | +$1,175 +92% | 28 |
| 429d |  lolboy4D | <250 | BuyNo29¢ → 0¢ | $1,069 | −$1,069 −100% | 28 |
| 429d | ElonSpam3 fills | 425–449 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $12,978 | +$380 +2.9% | 20 |
| 429d | chriscooks | <250 | SellYes80¢ → 100¢ | $3,028 | −$751 −25% | — |
| 429d | cipherpilot | 300–324 | BuyNo100¢ | $2,521 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 |
| 429d | snoozeman0500 | <250 | BuyYes76¢ → 100¢ | $1,250 | +$401 +32% | 26 |
| 429d |  MettaWorldPeace00 | 350–374 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,617 | −$8 −0.3% | — |
| 429d | MettaWorldPeace00 | 650+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,767 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 429d | wokerjoesleeper | <250 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $2,380 | +$453 +19% | 24 |
| 429d | teslab | 525–549 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,219 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 429d | teslab | 625–649 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,219 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 429d | coco040678 | <250 | BuyYes73¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$481 +37% | 27 |
| 429d | kysmaybe | <250 | BuyYes76¢ → 100¢ | $4,777 | +$1,493 +31% | 24 |
| 429d | ElonSpam2 fills | 475–499 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,422 | +$78 +1.8% | 20 |
MikeyDoes1,361 shares
FreeCityIndividual800 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between August 15, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and August 22, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for <250 means the market gives it about 100%.