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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 225–239 | 100% | +78 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| <150 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 150–164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 165–179 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 180–194 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 195–209 | 0% | −8 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 210–224 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 240–254 | 0% | −41 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 255–269 | 0% | −25 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 270–284 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 285+ | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 427d | PHYSIOLOGY | 225–239 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,654 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 427d |  lambda15 | 225–239 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,213 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 427d | lambda15 | 240–254 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,030 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 427d | Poory | 240–254 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,358 | +$44 +1.0% | 20 |
| 427d |  Gustav4 | 240–254 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,446 | +$15 +1.0% | 20 |
| 427d | noovd | 240–254 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,036 | +$42 +2.0% | 20 |
| 427d |  yzh101 | 240–254 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,940 | +$60 +3.1% | 20 |
| 427d | PHYSIOLOGY | 225–239 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,631 | +$202 +12% | 20 |
| 427d |  ElonSpam | 255–269 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,303 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 427d | Snoorrason2 fills | 255–269 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,986 | +$16 +0.4% | 20 |
| 427d | ElonSpam | 270–284 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,957 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 427d | xbsuwrkfmdl37 | 285+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,887 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 427d |  abraham20511 | 210–224 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 427d |  AgricultureSecretary | 225–239 | BuyNo63¢ → 0¢ | $1,009 | −$1,009 −100% | 20 |
| 427d | kk.Zoo | 225–239 | BuyNo75¢ → 0¢ | $1,379 | −$1,379 −100% | 20 |
| 428d | Nopein | 225–239 | BuyNo88¢ → 0¢ | $1,175 | −$1,175 −100% | 20 |
| 428d |  EverythingAlwaysHappens | 225–239 | BuyNo72¢ → 0¢ | $1,332 | −$1,332 −100% | 20 |
| 428d | cipherpilot | 210–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,995 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 428d | abraham20511 | 210–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,829 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 428d | Poory2 fills | 210–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,841 | +$13 +0.3% | 20 |
| 428d | play123321 | 240–254 | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$252 +25% | 20 |
| 428d |  Oompah..Loompah | 270–284 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,428 | +$22 +1.5% | 20 |
| 428d | leiger2 fills | 210–224 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,986 | +$26 +0.6% | 20 |
| 428d | bnbka | 210–224 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,936 | +$20 +1.1% | 20 |
| 428d | bnbka | 195–209 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,936 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 428d | glarity | 195–209 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,085 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 429d | bnbka | 195–209 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,212 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 429d | cipherpilot | 195–209 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,657 | +$17 +1.0% | 20 |
| 429d |  mrcojocaru | 195–209 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,319 | +$27 +2.0% | 21 |
| 429d | cipherpilot2 fills | 180–194 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,717 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 429d | chocolate123 | 240–254 | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $1,308 | +$287 +22% | 25 |
| 429d | ElonSpam | 180–194 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,165 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 429d | Snoorrason | 180–194 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,284 | +$17 +0.7% | 20 |
| 430d | ElonSpam | 150–164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,679 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 430d | Poory | 150–164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,168 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 430d | ElonSpam | <150 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,926 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 430d | Snoorrason | 150–164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,980 | +$20 +1.0% | 20 |
kysmaybe715 shares
Zighy100 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between August 15, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and August 22, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 225–239 means the market gives it about 100%.