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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 470+ | 100% | +19 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <215 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215–229 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 230–244 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 245–259 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260–274 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 275–289 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 290–304 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 305–319 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320–334 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 335–349 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 350–364 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 365–379 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380–394 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 395–409 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 410–424 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 425–439 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440–454 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 455–469 | 0% | −12 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 435d |  hjfdsjfsda | 470+ | SellYes>99¢ | $12,759 | −$17 −0.1% | — |
| 435d | Rogu2 fills | 470+ | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $9,032 | −$393 −4.3% | — |
| 435d |  Zighy2 fills | 470+ | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $5,557 | −$572 −10% | — |
| 435d | NeoWick2 fills | 470+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $33,771 | +$42 +0.1% | 20 |
| 435d | NeoWick2 fills | 455–469 | BuyNo>99¢ | $19,594 | +$21 +0.1% | 20 |
| 435d |  ElonSpam | 455–469 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,771 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 435d | LazyWanker | 470+ | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,686 | −$14 −0.8% | — |
| 435d | PHYSIOLOGY | 470+ | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,146 | −$9 −0.7% | — |
| 435d | Abis1 | 455–469 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,497 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 436d | septemberego | 470+ | SellYes100¢ | $2,985 | −$15 −0.5% | — |
| 436d |  Cookedtan | 455–469 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,275 | +$19 +0.4% | 20 |
| 436d |  AgricultureSecretary | 440–454 | BuyNo>99¢ | $32,983 | +$33 +0.1% | 20 |
| 436d |  cruzzzz | 440–454 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,141 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 436d |  MrZarvok | 440–454 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,996 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 436d |  imp | 440–454 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 436d |  HolyMoses72 fills | 440–454 | BuyNo>99¢ | $33,300 | +$33 +0.1% | 20 |
| 436d | edison6682 fills | 440–454 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,866 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 436d |  PredictionYogi | 440–454 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,398 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 436d |  arcisdead2 fills | 470+ | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $5,179 | +$648 +13% | 23 |
| 436d | noovd2 fills | 470+ | SellYes83¢ → 100¢ | $2,900 | −$601 −21% | — |
| 436d | snoozeman05004 fills | 470+ | BuyYes68¢ → 100¢ | $9,873 | +$4,643 +47% | 25 |
| 436d | Abis1 | 455–469 | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $1,194 | +$306 +26% | 25 |
| 436d | Abis1 | 470+ | BuyYes65¢ → 100¢ | $1,137 | +$602 +53% | 28 |
| 436d | Poory | 440–454 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,095 | +$132 +12% | 23 |
| 436d | snoozeman05003 fills | 470+ | SellYes52¢ → 100¢ | $4,183 | −$3,817 −91% | — |
| 436d | iQuitPolimarket | 455–469 | BuyYes35¢ → 0¢ | $1,431 | −$1,431 −100% | 29 |
| 436d | noovd | 470+ | BuyYes68¢ → 100¢ | $2,383 | +$1,121 +47% | 28 |
| 436d | iQuitPolimarket2 fills | 470+ | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $4,250 | +$703 +17% | 22 |
| 437d | 0xDB5 | 470+ | SellYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,231 | −$219 −18% | — |
| 437d | edison668 | 395–409 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,996 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 437d | ghghgghghghghhghghh888 | 470+ | SellYes86¢ → 100¢ | $2,063 | −$327 −16% | — |
| 437d | hjfdsjfsda | 470+ | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $11,423 | +$1,353 +12% | 22 |
| 437d | ElonSpam5 fills | 470+ | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $15,195 | +$4,356 +29% | 21 |
| 437d | tigerbearlion | 470+ | BuyNo13¢ → 0¢ | $1,893 | −$1,893 −100% | 29 |
| 437d | Ghostie1337 | 470+ | SellYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,243 | −$270 −22% | — |
| 437d | Snoorrason | 350–364 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,788 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 437d | Pitter | 470+ | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,130 | +$168 +15% | 22 |
| 437d |  forthcat | 470+ | SellYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,039 | −$167 −16% | — |
| 437d |  perps-01sqko85 | 470+ | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,553 | −$208 −13% | — |
| 437d |  Naichli | 470+ | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $2,436 | +$442 +18% | 23 |
| 438d | Buchman | 335–349 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,611 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 438d | 0x97cc…bbbf | 320–334 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 438d | Snoorrason | 350–364 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,788 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 438d | glarity2 fills | 350–364 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,934 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 438d | leiger3 fills | 335–349 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,552 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 438d |  ChunkyMonky | 470+ | SellYes72¢ → 100¢ | $1,290 | −$507 −39% | — |
| 438d | ChunkyMonky | 470+ | BuyYes73¢ → 100¢ | $1,308 | +$489 +37% | 25 |
| 438d | edison668 | 335–349 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 438d | Buchman | 335–349 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,610 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 438d | kk.Zoo | 470+ | BuyYes73¢ → 100¢ | $1,239 | +$458 +37% | 25 |
| 438d |  Gustav4 | 470+ | BuyYes68¢ → 100¢ | $1,528 | +$704 +46% | 25 |
| 438d |  nijikaijichi | 470+ | SellNo49¢ → 0¢ | $1,081 | +$1,081 +100% | — |
| 439d | ElonSpam5 fills | 275–289 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $89,705 | +$3,288 +3.7% | 20 |
| 439d | CoolBeans420 | 470+ | SellNo77¢ → 0¢ | $1,665 | +$1,665 +100% | — |
| 439d | zeus762 fills | 350–364 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $3,581 | +$373 +10% | 21 |
| 439d | ElonSpam | 290–304 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,445 | +$70 +2.0% | 20 |
| 439d | Gustav42 fills | 350–364 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $3,239 | +$357 +11% | 21 |
| 439d | zeus76 | <215 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,890 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 439d | ElonSpam11 fills | <215 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $54,009 | +$1,613 +3.0% | 20 |
| 439d | Naichli2 fills | 470+ | BuyNo95¢ → 0¢ | $10,075 | −$10,075 −100% | 20 |
Ernstjunger3,479 shares
FreeCityIndividual833 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between August 1, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and August 8, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 470+ means the market gives it about 100%.