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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 240-259 | 100% | +38 pts | +98 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −24 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −27 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −9 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −3 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580+ | 0% | — | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 248d | seaborgiumteen | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,248 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 248d | Ill-Foundation | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,977 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 248d |  SuckMyDicck | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,505 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 248d |  Iwilltothemoob | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,105 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 248d |  Michajlowski | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,498 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 248d |  OVOXOSM | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,632 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 248d | whitedolphin | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,695 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 248d |  NEMESi | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,733 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 248d |  shadow54 | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,793 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 248d | dudukos7 fills | 240-259 | SellYes68¢ → 100¢ | $18,534 | −$8,908 −48% | — |
| 248d | niceShare | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,779 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 248d | Lukewarm67 | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,214 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 248d |  Mei-ji | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,148 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 248d | VibeElon | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $12,426 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 248d | OVOXOPRIME | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,040 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 248d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,900 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 248d | Shallow-Actor | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,090 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 248d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,279 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 248d | Bankrupt-Loser | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,394 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 248d | Poiuztrewq | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,348 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 248d |  0000000000000000000000K2 fills | 240-259 | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $17,462 | −$2,603 −15% | — |
| 248d |  Elonurmom | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,297 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 248d | annerexx | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,849 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 248d |  stauffen | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,149 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 248d | cucuruzblindat | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,949 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 248d |  crvAlex | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $10,236 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 248d |  helvetic-samba | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,049 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 248d |  Prexpect4 fills | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $16,376 | +$36 +0.2% | 20 |
| 248d | Ashurnasirpal | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,430 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 248d | NxGe | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,575 | −$14 −0.3% | — |
| 248d |  PredictionYogi | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,788 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 248d | Pungent-Ski | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,023 | −$4 −0.4% | — |
| 248d |  PumpThePompey | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,326 | −$6 −0.5% | — |
| 248d |  Gustav42 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,714 | +$55 +1.0% | 20 |
| 248d | PredictionYogi | 260-279 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,108 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 |
| 248d |  0xzfl | 260-279 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,351 | −$24 −1.0% | — |
| 248d | wokerjoesleeper | 260-279 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,736 | +$10 +0.6% | 20 |
| 248d | Drab-Backyard | 240-259 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,688 | −$33 −1.9% | — |
| 248d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 240-259 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$20 +1.0% | 20 |
| 248d | Gustav4 | 240-259 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,767 | +$29 +1.6% | 21 |
| 248d | Acidic-Stretch | 240-259 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,041 | −$67 −6.4% | — |
| 248d |  MyomEverwind | 240-259 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,253 | +$111 +4.9% | 22 |
| 248d | 0B06 | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,589 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 248d | alwaysloser | 260-279 | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,089 | −$111 −10% | — |
| 248d | Ill-Foundation | 260-279 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,808 | +$172 +6.1% | 22 |
| 248d |  Brotherinchrist | 240-259 | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,116 | −$84 −7.5% | — |
| 248d |  MuskWillMakeMeRich | 240-259 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,655 | +$110 +6.7% | 22 |
| 248d | WCWS | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,498 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 248d | forestk | 240-259 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $4,649 | +$359 +7.7% | 22 |
| 248d | WCWS | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 248d | flyboy1 | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,874 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 248d | Shallow-Actor | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,834 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 248d |  dingdangcat | 240-259 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,274 | +$226 +18% | 25 |
| 248d |  MankPredict | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,598 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 248d | SteveFill | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,110 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 248d | whaleee2 fills | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,107 | −$7 −0.2% | — |
| 248d | geraldhew89 | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 248d |  Wahhdahhhellielon | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,530 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 248d | Dd8Aa6940ef0b95B2ae32981dFA0ff7caF8dedf92 fills | 280-299 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,778 | −$32 −1.2% | — |
| 248d |  Diabetesboi | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,523 | −$7 −0.5% | — |
VibeTrader4,278 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from February 10 12:00 PM ET to February 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 240-259 means the market gives it about 100%.