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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 300-319 | 100% | +73 pts | +91 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −4 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −16 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −46 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | −5 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | −1 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | −1 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580+ | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 245d | k7sh4 fills | 340-359 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $28,843 | −$386 −1.3% | — |
| 245d | niceShare | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,978 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 245d |  young.creator | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,052 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 245d |  axelverse.sol | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 245d | Komhd | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,694 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 245d | annerexx | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,090 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 245d |  bigguy4u | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,833 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 245d |  MettaWorldPeace00 | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,325 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 245d |  Michajlowski | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,872 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 245d | Cipry | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,651 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 245d | marsong072523 | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,493 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 245d |  HuskyWins | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,031 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 245d | whaleee | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,032 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 245d | However110 | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,213 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 245d |  enginer69 | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,962 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 245d |  0000000000000000000000K | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $10,134 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 245d |  crvAlex | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,995 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 245d |  abhionpoly | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,649 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 245d | volume1 | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,908 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 245d | Poiuztrewq | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,747 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 245d | Dd8Aa6940ef0b95B2ae32981dFA0ff7caF8dedf9 | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,530 | −$9 −0.3% | — |
| 245d | Flancho2 fills | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,781 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 245d |  Prexpect2 fills | 300-319 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,765 | +$20 +0.2% | 20 |
| 245d | Shallow-Actor | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,735 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 245d | geraldhew89 | 300-319 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,000 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 245d |  ggmggn | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,396 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 245d | Michajlowski | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,753 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 245d | carboyant | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,716 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 245d | BinaryBaron | 300-319 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,616 | +$11 +0.7% | 20 |
| 245d | volume1 | 320-339 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,891 | +$19 +1.0% | 20 |
| 245d |  lasiweijiasi | 320-339 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,026 | +$11 +1.1% | 20 |
| 245d | Bankrupt-Loser | 300-319 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,853 | +$26 +1.4% | 20 |
| 245d |  0xzfl | 300-319 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,542 | −$31 −2.0% | — |
| 245d | Bankrupt-Loser | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,853 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 245d | 137N | 320-339 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,568 | −$39 −2.5% | — |
| 245d | forestk | 300-319 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,008 | +$21 +2.0% | 21 |
| 245d |  Mei-ji | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,992 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 245d | 0xda4d…4e78 | 300-319 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,583 | −$53 −3.4% | — |
| 245d | ggmggn | 300-319 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,482 | +$46 +3.1% | 21 |
| 245d |  danielillo00773 fills | 340-359 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $6,497 | −$111 −1.7% | — |
| 245d | Kurai | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,172 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 245d | 137N | 320-339 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $5,144 | +$214 +4.2% | 21 |
| 245d |  Babydogfight | 300-319 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,300 | +$100 +4.4% | 21 |
| 245d |  ExperimentalDude | 300-319 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,556 | −$94 −6.0% | — |
| 245d | influenz.eth | 320-339 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,548 | +$90 +5.8% | 22 |
| 245d | influenz.eth | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,637 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 245d | annerexx2 fills | 300-319 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $3,686 | +$230 +6.2% | 22 |
| 245d | BuBuBlackBear | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,443 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 245d |  Annica3 fills | 300-319 | BuyYes71¢ → 100¢ | $23,381 | +$9,743 +42% | 30 |
| 245d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,327 | +$12 +0.4% | 20 |
| 245d |  Toothemoon-wink | 300-319 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,068 | +$119 +11% | 23 |
| 245d |  Wahhdahhhellielon | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,964 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 245d | 137N | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,309 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 245d | WCWS | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,305 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 245d | Strong-Effacement | 300-319 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,770 | +$219 +12% | 24 |
| 245d | Jaiguruji | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,005 | −$5 −0.5% | — |
| 245d | danielillo00774 fills | 340-359 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,097 | +$89 +1.0% | 20 |
| 245d | 0xzfl | 300-319 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,400 | +$174 +12% | 24 |
| 245d | marsong072523 | 300-319 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$194 +15% | 24 |
| 246d |  Leo-Messi | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,530 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
ilovetwinkies910 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from February 13 12:00 PM ET to February 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 300-319 means the market gives it about 100%.