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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90-114 | 100% | +44 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −17 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −51 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −19 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 247d |  NEMESi | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,292 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 247d |  PredictionMarketsRnot4me | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,538 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 247d | Thin-Print | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,336 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 247d | cucuruzblindat | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,365 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 247d | volume1 | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,646 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 247d |  Zenef2 | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,598 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 247d |  Wahhdahhhellielon | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,430 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 247d | k7sh | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,860 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 247d | annerexx | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,109 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 247d | niceShare | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,144 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 247d | xixi9322 fills | 90-114 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,699 | +$32 +0.7% | 20 |
| 247d | Baroncoin | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,386 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 247d |  Michajlowski | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,014 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 247d |  noreasapa | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $17,951 | +$18 +0.1% | 20 |
| 247d | noreasapa | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,683 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 247d | Mobilc | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,669 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 247d | besmart2025 | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,226 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 247d | 0xtopper | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,399 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 247d |  crvAlex | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,264 | −$13 −0.2% | — |
| 247d | 0xtopper | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,397 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 247d | Saturni | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,073 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 247d | Ogozi2 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,744 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 247d |  Mei-ji | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,641 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 247d | chiquitopapa | 90-114 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,929 | −$18 −0.6% | — |
| 247d | 0xf328…2b78 | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,004 | −$30 −0.5% | — |
| 247d | mitikohalls | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,992 | +$8 +0.4% | 20 |
| 247d | Michajlowski | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,972 | +$28 +0.7% | 20 |
| 247d | Zenef2 | 90-114 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,582 | +$18 +1.1% | 20 |
| 247d | wokerjoesleeper2 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,278 | +$46 +1.4% | 20 |
| 247d | 137N | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,536 | +$50 +1.1% | 20 |
| 247d | 0xtopper | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,033 | +$11 +1.1% | 20 |
| 247d | bonder | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,897 | +$59 +1.2% | 20 |
| 247d | 0x5fa2…e6f3 | 90-114 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,432 | −$22 −1.5% | — |
| 247d | whaleee | 90-114 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,972 | +$28 +1.4% | 20 |
| 247d | dudukos6 fills | 90-114 | SellYes78¢ → 100¢ | $12,989 | −$3,625 −28% | — |
| 247d | goncalo1021 | 115-139 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,594 | +$25 +1.6% | 21 |
| 247d |  0xzfl | 90-114 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,498 | −$57 −3.8% | — |
| 247d | influenz.eth | 115-139 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,136 | +$24 +2.1% | 21 |
| 247d |  Harvey67 | 90-114 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,311 | +$48 +2.1% | 21 |
| 247d | onekey09 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,819 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 247d | sxrgi | 90-114 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,515 | −$86 −5.7% | — |
| 247d | annerexx | 90-114 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,846 | +$97 +5.3% | 22 |
| 247d | chiquitopapa | 90-114 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,979 | +$104 +5.3% | 22 |
| 247d | Michajlowski | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,901 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 247d | Bankrupt-Loser | 115-139 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,659 | +$84 +5.1% | 22 |
| 247d |  Iamnailong | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,189 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 248d |  Benwen | 90-114 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $2,448 | +$204 +8.4% | 23 |
| 248d | flyboy1 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,881 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 248d |  OVOXOSM | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,031 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 248d | 0xzfl | 90-114 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,400 | +$156 +11% | 23 |
| 248d | wokerjoesleeper | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,119 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 248d | 137N | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,986 | +$14 +0.2% | 20 |
| 248d | kosmichesky | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,052 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 248d | bonder | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,241 | +$13 +0.2% | 20 |
| 248d | ok2606 | 90-114 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,008 | +$192 +19% | 25 |
| 248d | WCWS2 fills | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,287 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 248d | iipera | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 248d | Sugary-Carpeting | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,076 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 248d |  Kanyepuckmycat | 90-114 | SellYes71¢ → 100¢ | $1,337 | −$539 −40% | — |
| 248d |  dontshow | 90-114 | SellYes68¢ → 100¢ | $2,700 | −$1,300 −48% | — |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from February 16 12:00 PM ET to February 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 90-114 means the market gives it about 100%.