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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 300-319 | 100% | −7 pts | +16 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −2 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −3 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −18 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | +25 pts | +40 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | +6 pts | +5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | −1 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580+ | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 238d |  NEMESi | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,839 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 238d |  PredictionMarketsRnot4me | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,441 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 238d |  lebi4ik | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,996 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 238d | lebi4ik | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,501 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 238d | madmaxctfr | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,841 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 238d |  Elonurmom | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 238d | vladim1 | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,074 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 238d |  bigguy4u | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,286 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 238d | Hollow-AluminumNew account | 300-319 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,735 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 238d | Ashurnasirpal | 300-319 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,209 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 238d | Strong-Effacement | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,001 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 238d | angelo129613 | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,367 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 238d | Poiuztrewq | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,799 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 238d | 0xf328…2b78 | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,000 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 238d | ricepudding | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,938 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 238d | cucuruzblindat | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,356 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 238d |  zouranzoki | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,099 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 238d | kalilando341 | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,129 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 238d |  Annica4 fills | 300-319 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $23,462 | +$566 +2.4% | 21 |
| 238d |  VCVIC | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,941 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 238d | Barack.Obama | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,848 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 238d | dahaidefangxiang | 300-319 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,065 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 238d | djacljal | 300-319 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,049 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 238d | djacljal | 420-439 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,049 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 238d | dahaidefangxiang | 420-439 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,051 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 238d | dudukos5 fills | 300-319 | SellYes67¢ → 100¢ | $8,535 | −$4,291 −50% | — |
| 238d | niceShare | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,238 | −$5 −0.4% | — |
| 238d |  Prexpect | 300-319 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,084 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 238d | geraldhew892 fills | 300-319 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,570 | +$48 +1.1% | 20 |
| 238d |  LinaBell🦊 | 300-319 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,186 | +$7 +0.6% | 20 |
| 238d | zouranzoki | 300-319 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,089 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 238d | luckyshoe2 fills | 300-319 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,673 | +$63 +1.1% | 20 |
| 238d | influenz.eth3 fills | 320-339 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $5,080 | +$134 +2.6% | 21 |
| 238d | Strong-Effacement | 300-319 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,965 | +$38 +1.9% | 21 |
| 238d | pol76 | 300-319 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,895 | +$115 +2.9% | 21 |
| 238d | BinaryBaron | 320-339 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,960 | +$40 +2.0% | 21 |
| 238d | MelH | 300-319 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,400 | +$100 +4.2% | 21 |
| 238d | influenz.eth2 fills | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,274 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 238d | gooled | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,032 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 238d | tenorplum | 320-339 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,297 | +$97 +4.2% | 21 |
| 238d |  Ceirox | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,894 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 238d | SteveFill | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,559 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 238d | pauer31 | 300-319 | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,860 | −$190 −10% | — |
| 238d | Shallow-Actor | 320-339 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,936 | +$146 +7.5% | 22 |
| 238d |  PredictionYogi3 fills | 300-319 | BuyYes72¢ → 100¢ | $4,337 | +$1,663 +38% | 27 |
| 238d | 0x417932ca3da34bf3df20009512a85b2eee9429c3 | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,146 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 238d | mintchocolate | 320-339 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,210 | +$181 +15% | 24 |
| 238d | Dd8Aa6940ef0b95B2ae32981dFA0ff7caF8dedf9 | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,433 | −$7 −0.5% | — |
| 238d | Wild-Manner | 300-319 | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$250 +25% | 27 |
| 238d | Annica2 fills | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $37,836 | +$86 +0.2% | 20 |
| 239d | dsdshjj | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,016 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 239d | BinaryBaron | 340-359 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,422 | +$21 +0.6% | 20 |
| 239d |  eI0zwvzk | 340-359 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,393 | +$10 +0.7% | 20 |
| 239d | Vigilant-BeardNew account | 300-319 | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $1,010 | +$426 +42% | 39 |
| 239d | geraldhew89 | 340-359 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$18 +0.9% | 20 |
| 239d | geraldhew89 | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 239d | Annica4 fills | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $33,395 | +$33 +0.1% | 20 |
| 239d | Sinful-Cupcake | 300-319 | SellYes47¢ → 100¢ | $1,437 | −$1,630 −113% | — |
| 239d | dudukos | 320-339 | BuyYes48¢ → 0¢ | $1,499 | −$1,499 −100% | 30 |
| 239d | bigguy4u | 340-359 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,185 | +$105 +2.5% | 21 |
QuietMountain14,257 shares
nimikm1,350 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from February 20 12:00 PM ET to February 27, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 300-319 means the market gives it about 100%.