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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 200-219 | 100% | 0 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | +2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | +2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | +2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | +1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 231d |  Mei-ji | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,485 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | qochar | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,212 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | dudukos4 fills | 200-219 | SellYes69¢ → 100¢ | $9,454 | −$4,236 −45% | — |
| 231d | niooon | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,788 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 231d |  LeJoe | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,623 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 231d |  DJB. | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,745 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Sarths | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,870 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | cucuruzblindat | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,788 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 231d |  Romeo005 | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,099 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Futarky | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,074 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | SteveFill | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,584 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 231d |  Elonurmom | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,179 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 231d |  zouranzoki | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,322 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 231d |  Gustav4 | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,202 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 231d | Gustav46 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $29,404 | +$331 +1.1% | 20 |
| 231d |  Prexpect | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 231d | Prexpect7 fills | 200-219 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $26,195 | +$409 +1.6% | 21 |
| 231d |  NrNrfNrf2 | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,981 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 231d |  ElonJail | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,825 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | 7G-MAN3 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,428 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 231d | comeWiner123 | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,612 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 231d | Assured-Magnet | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,251 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 231d |  bigguy4u | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,028 | −$18 −0.3% | — |
| 231d |  Therealsmurf | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,391 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 231d | DegenEriccro | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,887 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Dd8Aa6940ef0b95B2ae32981dFA0ff7caF8dedf9 | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,746 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 231d | Ashurnasirpal3 fills | 200-219 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $4,615 | +$130 +2.8% | 21 |
| 231d |  HowToBasic | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,393 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 231d | BinaryBaron2 fills | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $11,976 | +$24 +0.2% | 20 |
| 231d | BinaryBaron2 fills | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $12,383 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 231d |  LinaBell🦊 | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,110 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,776 | +$11 +0.3% | 20 |
| 231d | 0xc023…ca28 | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,100 | +$13 +0.6% | 20 |
| 231d | NrNrfNrf2 | 200-219 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,578 | −$24 −1.5% | — |
| 231d | zouranzoki | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,309 | +$15 +1.1% | 20 |
| 231d | Noted-Currency | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,262 | +$14 +1.1% | 20 |
| 231d | Worldly-Fifth | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,193 | +$12 +1.0% | 20 |
| 231d | k7sh2 fills | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,001 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 231d |  Boss7 | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | onekey093 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $35,131 | +$41 +0.1% | 20 |
| 231d | Sirius109 | 200-219 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,485 | +$56 +2.3% | 21 |
| 231d | Boss7 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 231d | Mascalzonelatino | 220-239 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,504 | +$125 +2.8% | 21 |
| 231d | idgaf19842 fills | 200-219 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,644 | +$123 +4.6% | 21 |
| 231d |  MuskWillMakeMeRich | 200-219 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,092 | +$39 +3.5% | 21 |
| 231d | jidong9808 | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,394 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Zerothx | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,430 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 231d |  cucutember | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,047 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 231d | zouranzoki | 200-219 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,309 | −$55 −4.2% | — |
| 231d |  Goulashnikov2 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,200 | +$198 +4.7% | 21 |
| 231d | Lawful-Venture | 200-219 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,017 | +$114 +5.6% | 23 |
| 231d | Goulashnikov | 220-239 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,083 | −$135 −6.5% | — |
| 231d | FalseNine | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,697 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 231d | zouranzoki | 200-219 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,277 | +$86 +6.7% | 22 |
| 231d | Humming-Motorcar | 220-239 | SellNo81¢ → 100¢ | $1,065 | −$249 −23% | — |
| 231d | miyugyiftu66 | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,199 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | venezuelain | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,893 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Boss74 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,561 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 231d | tifasan2 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,178 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 231d | NrNrfNrf2 | 200-219 | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,337 | +$264 +20% | 26 |
nimikm7,892 shares
Judkins3,350 shares
duderr1,014 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from February 27 12:00 PM ET to March 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 200-219 means the market gives it about 100%.