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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 360-379 | 100% | +97 pts | +87 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −27 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −13 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −13 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −32 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −32 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −31 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −34 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | −15 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | −11 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | −1 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | 0 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580-599 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 600-619 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 620-639 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 640-659 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 660-679 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 680-699 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 700-719 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 720-739 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 740+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 255d |  abhionpoly | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,615 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 255d |  PredictionMarketsRnot4me | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,282 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | Batmanwing | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $11,500 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 255d |  MrLucker | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,296 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | volume1 | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,279 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | 0xD34DB33F1337 | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,202 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | samponcuochi | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,920 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | Cuddly-AccusationNew account | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,326 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 255d |  dingdangcat | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,109 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 255d |  dushen88 | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,446 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | annerexx | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,370 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | moxigan | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,619 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | 0x265f…a448 | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,448 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | dudukos2 fills | 360-379 | SellYes57¢ → 100¢ | $2,247 | −$1,728 −77% | — |
| 255d | mitikohalls | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,003 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 255d |  crvAlex | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $11,484 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | Jayyjee | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,063 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 255d |  shilin6327 | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,179 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 255d |  Benwen | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,182 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | onekey09 | 360-379 | BuyYes>99¢ | $15,672 | +$16 +0.1% | 20 |
| 255d |  MrMelonHead | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,295 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 255d |  Annica8 fills | 360-379 | BuyYes64¢ → 100¢ | $48,463 | +$27,227 +56% | 30 |
| 255d | MrMelonHead | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,167 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | geraldhew892 fills | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,000 | +$13 +0.2% | 20 |
| 255d |  Parz1vaI3 fills | 360-379 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $6,059 | +$833 +14% | 24 |
| 255d |  PredictionYogi4 fills | 360-379 | BuyYes62¢ → 100¢ | $13,682 | +$8,262 +60% | 30 |
| 255d |  Prexpect2 fills | 360-379 | BuyYes>99¢ | $16,633 | +$75 +0.5% | 20 |
| 255d |  Gustav4 | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,990 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | lisaewoo | 360-379 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,006 | −$9 −0.9% | — |
| 255d | cucuruzblindat | 360-379 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,645 | −$19 −0.4% | — |
| 255d |  HowToBasic2 fills | 360-379 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,000 | +$18 +0.4% | 20 |
| 255d |  LinaBell🦊 | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $14,430 | −$14 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | influenz.eth2 fills | 380-399 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,433 | +$40 +0.7% | 20 |
| 255d | DegenEriccro2 fills | 380-399 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,622 | +$40 +0.9% | 20 |
| 255d | wokerjoesleeper | 380-399 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,982 | +$18 +0.9% | 20 |
| 255d | mitikohalls | 360-379 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,228 | +$10 +0.8% | 20 |
| 255d | mitikohalls | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,988 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | DegenEriccro | 420-439 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,672 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | volume1 | 380-399 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,232 | +$53 +1.0% | 20 |
| 255d |  Iamnailong | 380-399 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,392 | +$34 +1.0% | 20 |
| 255d | DegenEriccro | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,395 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | BinaryBaron | 360-379 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,282 | +$13 +1.0% | 20 |
| 255d | Iamnailong | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,392 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | 7G-MAN | 380-399 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,013 | +$13 +1.3% | 20 |
| 255d | Samwellll | 380-399 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,400 | +$72 +1.3% | 20 |
| 255d |  Toothemoon-wink | 380-399 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,580 | +$22 +1.4% | 20 |
| 255d | volume1 | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,245 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 255d |  bigguy4u | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,667 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | luckyshoe | 360-379 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,364 | +$29 +2.1% | 21 |
| 255d | Ashurnasirpal2 fills | 360-379 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,517 | +$143 +4.1% | 21 |
| 255d | forestk | 360-379 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,338 | +$80 +1.8% | 21 |
| 255d | Bankrupt-Loser | 360-379 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,131 | +$162 +5.2% | 22 |
| 255d | Bankrupt-Loser | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,131 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | geraldhew893 fills | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,591 | +$13 +0.2% | 20 |
| 255d | bigbroM2 fills | 380-399 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,538 | +$213 +8.4% | 23 |
| 255d |  MuskWillMakeMeRich | 360-379 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,525 | +$129 +8.5% | 23 |
| 255d | goncalo1021 | 360-379 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,165 | +$124 +11% | 23 |
| 255d | Kurai | 360-379 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,094 | +$141 +13% | 24 |
| 255d | Samwellll | 420-439 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,500 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 255d | ebisumike2 fills | 400-419 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,881 | +$70 +1.8% | 21 |
codewithimanshu18,523 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from February 3 12:00 PM ET to February 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 360-379 means the market gives it about 100%.