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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +57 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −45 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 258d | Coordinated-Leather | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $8,230 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 258d |  Fuhhhhh2 fills | 40-64 | SellYes54¢ → 100¢ | $2,085 | −$1,749 −84% | — |
| 258d | iipera | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,970 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 258d |  Troschk | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,160 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 258d |  FFIE.2 fills | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,993 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 258d |  couldbeworse | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 258d | BallenaInversa | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,262 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 258d |  crvAlex | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,651 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 258d | nani | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,131 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 258d |  BoringPunter | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $49,421 | +$49 +0.1% | 20 |
| 258d |  Annica2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $13,487 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 258d |  stauffen | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,712 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 258d |  PredictionYogi4 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $27,272 | +$381 +1.4% | 20 |
| 258d | Oxford-Alpha-Fund3 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $16,553 | +$44 +0.3% | 20 |
| 258d | Rich-Standoff | 40-64 | SellYes100¢ | $1,095 | −$6 −0.5% | — |
| 258d | win-win-win99 | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,982 | +$18 +0.6% | 20 |
| 258d |  Gustav43 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $12,309 | +$528 +4.3% | 21 |
| 258d | AlexPro | 40-64 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,194 | +$42 +1.9% | 21 |
| 258d | Annica | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $44,391 | +$44 +0.1% | 20 |
| 258d | PredictionYogi | 40-64 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $5,185 | −$103 −2.0% | — |
| 259d | wokerjoesleeper3 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,752 | +$139 +2.9% | 21 |
| 259d | wokerjoesleeper4 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,118 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 259d | Bankrupt-Loser | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,680 | +$38 +1.4% | 20 |
| 259d | powerFeng | 40-64 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,035 | +$24 +2.3% | 21 |
| 259d | Troschk | 40-64 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,132 | +$29 +2.6% | 21 |
| 259d | luckyshoe | 40-64 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,724 | +$115 +3.1% | 21 |
| 259d | LIQUID8dCAP3 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $4,204 | +$393 +9.3% | 23 |
| 259d | SuperBet69 | 65-89 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,283 | −$82 −6.4% | — |
| 259d |  OVOXOSM | 65-89 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,045 | +$55 +5.3% | 22 |
| 259d | Rich-Standoff | 40-64 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,044 | +$56 +5.4% | 22 |
| 259d | Annica | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,894 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 259d | Tagan1 | 40-64 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$107 +5.4% | 22 |
| 259d | BallenaInversa | 40-64 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,075 | +$62 +5.8% | 22 |
| 259d | geniusboy | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,008 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | Fuhhhhh2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes56¢ → 100¢ | $2,007 | +$1,577 +79% | 28 |
| 259d | LIQUID8dCAP2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $3,073 | +$397 +13% | 24 |
| 259d | yip88 | 90-114 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,344 | −$10 −0.8% | — |
| 259d | 0CDC | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,179 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | maozexi | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,080 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 259d |  Iamnailong | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,143 | +$13 +0.4% | 20 |
| 259d | 28s | 65-89 | SellNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,238 | −$191 −15% | — |
| 259d | OVOXOSM | 90-114 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,212 | −$9 −0.7% | — |
| 259d | sachin5868 | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,711 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 259d |  Suhaslb94 | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,294 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | ebisumike | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,547 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 259d | folioquant | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,972 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | influenz.eth2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,933 | +$13 +0.4% | 20 |
| 259d | influenz.eth2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $2,846 | +$266 +9.3% | 22 |
| 259d | influenz.eth2 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,109 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 259d | Ivan222 | 40-64 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,175 | +$124 +11% | 23 |
| 259d | Knobby-Disparity | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,195 | +$23 +0.7% | 20 |
| 259d | Gustav4 | 65-89 | SellNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,077 | −$147 −14% | — |
| 259d | witcherwolf | 40-64 | SellYes81¢ → 100¢ | $1,834 | −$434 −24% | — |
| 259d | martinlim | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,081 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | Batmanwing | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,342 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | 0xfc8d…55c5 | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,410 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 259d | mintchocolate | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,511 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 259d |  eI0zwvzk | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $11,013 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | WCWS2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,421 | +$35 +0.8% | 20 |
| 259d | Gustav4 | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
nimikm1,090 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from February 5 12:00 PM ET to February 7, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.