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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 115-139 | 100% | +88 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −13 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −59 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −49 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −50 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 256d | acus | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,208 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 256d | babmisha | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,693 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 256d |  Fuhhhhh | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,338 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 256d |  MrLucker | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,798 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 256d |  abhionpoly | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,520 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 256d | FakeX | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,008 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 256d | annerexx | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,685 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 256d |  Suhaslb94 | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,647 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 256d | goncalo1021 | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,108 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 256d | luckyshoe | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,535 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 256d | Irondo | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,600 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 256d |  crvAlex | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,624 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 256d | xixi932 | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 256d | vip99999 | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,598 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 256d | DegenEriccro | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,498 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 256d |  Prexpect | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,281 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 256d | Irondo | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,601 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 256d |  Gustav4 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,990 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 256d | Prexpect2 fills | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $13,335 | +$23 +0.2% | 20 |
| 256d | cucuruzblindat | 115-139 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,609 | −$25 −0.7% | — |
| 256d | omegonx | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,706 | +$8 +0.3% | 20 |
| 256d |  HowToBasic | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,500 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 256d |  Wahhdahhhellielon | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,120 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 256d | 1uKing | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,540 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 256d | Degenhunters | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,104 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 256d | vip99999 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,597 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 256d | abhionpoly | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,517 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 256d | 0x265f…a448 | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,879 | −$21 −0.3% | — |
| 256d |  dushen88 | 115-139 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,327 | −$20 −1.5% | — |
| 256d | Poory | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,356 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 256d |  PredictionYogi | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,880 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 256d | iipera2 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,939 | +$11 +0.4% | 20 |
| 256d | 07nbw4 | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,842 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 256d | Suhaslb94 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,443 | +$6 +0.4% | 20 |
| 256d | goncalo1021 | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,081 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 256d | annerexx | 115-139 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$12 +0.8% | 20 |
| 256d | lvshang | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,361 | +$26 +0.4% | 20 |
| 256d | DegenEriccro | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,791 | +$23 +0.8% | 20 |
| 256d | abhionpoly | 115-139 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,293 | +$14 +1.1% | 20 |
| 256d | nony1748 | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,000 | +$49 +0.8% | 20 |
| 256d |  dingdangcat | 115-139 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,024 | +$10 +1.0% | 20 |
| 256d | FakeX | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 256d | influenz.eth | 140-164 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,376 | +$24 +1.8% | 21 |
| 256d | forestk | 115-139 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,264 | +$75 +1.7% | 21 |
| 256d | fgnhrhyt | 115-139 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,318 | −$93 −4.0% | — |
| 256d | jtyj76u67 | 115-139 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,493 | −$59 −3.9% | — |
| 256d | efbhrh | 115-139 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,661 | −$66 −3.9% | — |
| 256d | luckyshoe | 115-139 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,495 | +$29 +1.9% | 21 |
| 257d | Gustav42 fills | 115-139 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,352 | +$157 +4.7% | 21 |
| 257d | fghrtj65 | 115-139 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,070 | +$46 +4.3% | 21 |
| 257d | babmisha2 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $5,302 | +$248 +4.7% | 21 |
| 257d | Lomez | 115-139 | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,454 | −$180 −12% | — |
| 257d | Jaiguruji | 215-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,013 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 257d |  TweetPulse.Live | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,574 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 257d |  Troschk | 115-139 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,331 | −$111 −8.3% | — |
| 257d |  Annica3 fills | 115-139 | SellYes60¢ → 100¢ | $15,799 | −$10,613 −67% | — |
| 257d | Annica2 fills | 115-139 | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $3,522 | +$1,166 +33% | 28 |
| 257d | btfrh45n | 115-139 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,554 | +$68 +4.4% | 21 |
| 257d |  C78123 | 140-164 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$98 +4.9% | 22 |
| 257d |  jieu | 140-164 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,284 | +$114 +5.0% | 22 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from February 7 12:00 PM ET to February 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 115-139 means the market gives it about 100%.