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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 140-164 | 100% | +78 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −16 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −18 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −26 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −26 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | −45 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | −23 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | −9 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 254d | ellio89892 fills | 140-164 | SellYes>99¢ | $13,844 | −$14 −0.1% | — |
| 254d |  Parz1vaI3 fills | 140-164 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,867 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 254d |  A9gain | 140-164 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,209 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 254d | playingmoney | 140-164 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,250 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 254d | mintchocolate | 190-214 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,162 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 254d | mintchocolate | 140-164 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,900 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 254d | mitikohalls | 190-214 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,159 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 254d | Collion | 140-164 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,522 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 254d |  helvetic-samba | 140-164 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,429 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 254d | goncalo1021 | 215-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,471 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 254d |  MettaWorldPeace00 | 190-214 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,258 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 254d | samponcudinti | 215-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,870 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 254d | samponcuochi | 215-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,391 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 254d | dxdxdxx | 140-164 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,665 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 254d |  Archeroon | 190-214 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,918 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 254d |  crvAlex2 fills | 140-164 | SellYes42¢ → 100¢ | $3,085 | −$4,317 −140% | — |
| 254d | dudukos5 fills | 140-164 | SellYes76¢ → 100¢ | $14,162 | −$4,486 −32% | — |
| 254d |  Gustav4 | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $28,983 | +$31 +0.1% | 20 |
| 254d |  badmoshbillu | 140-164 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,545 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 254d | dxdxdxx | 140-164 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,660 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 254d | Parz1vaI2 fills | 140-164 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $3,281 | +$453 +14% | 24 |
| 254d | Gustav4 | 140-164 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,497 | +$36 +1.0% | 20 |
| 254d | James.N | 140-164 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,469 | +$164 +11% | 23 |
| 254d |  Wahhdahhhellielon | 190-214 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,340 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 254d | letmigoreng | 190-214 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,078 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 254d |  Kamikaze993 fills | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $29,970 | +$30 +0.1% | 20 |
| 254d |  Annica | 140-164 | BuyYes68¢ → 100¢ | $1,086 | +$514 +47% | 30 |
| 254d |  ExperimentalDude | 140-164 | BuyYes68¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$477 +48% | 30 |
| 254d | JamesWe0434 | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,178 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 254d |  bigguy4u | 190-214 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,752 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 254d | mitikohalls | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,153 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 254d | Collion | 140-164 | BuyYes71¢ → 100¢ | $1,791 | +$734 +41% | 30 |
| 254d | Collion | 140-164 | SellNo30¢ → 0¢ | $1,791 | +$1,791 +100% | — |
| 254d |  flow-trader-at-optiver | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,492 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 254d | iipera | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,697 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 254d | Batmanwing | 140-164 | SellNo44¢ → 0¢ | $3,489 | +$3,489 +100% | — |
| 254d | crvAlex | 165-189 | SellYes45¢ → 0¢ | $2,384 | +$2,384 +100% | — |
| 254d | DegenEriccro3 fills | 190-214 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,561 | +$51 +0.9% | 20 |
| 254d |  TweetPulse.Live | 140-164 | SellNo51¢ → 0¢ | $2,915 | +$2,915 +100% | — |
| 254d | cryptoverse | 140-164 | SellNo55¢ → 0¢ | $1,235 | +$1,235 +100% | — |
| 254d | crvAlex | 140-164 | SellNo58¢ → 0¢ | $2,909 | +$2,909 +100% | — |
| 254d | WCWS | 240+ | SellNo>99¢ | $8,691 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 254d | madmaxctfr | 190-214 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,522 | +$20 +0.8% | 20 |
| 254d |  Benwen | 165-189 | SellYes63¢ → 0¢ | $1,615 | +$1,615 +100% | — |
| 254d | fedeaaajlp | 190-214 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$37 +1.9% | 21 |
| 254d | luckyshoe | 190-214 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$31 +3.1% | 21 |
| 254d |  Iamnailong | 190-214 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,445 | +$107 +3.1% | 21 |
| 254d |  yangleduoduo | 140-164 | BuyNo76¢ → 0¢ | $1,785 | −$1,785 −100% | 28 |
| 254d | Tushar0998 | 140-164 | SellNo73¢ → 0¢ | $1,516 | +$1,516 +100% | — |
| 254d | piblott | 240+ | SellNo>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 254d | omegonx | 215-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,315 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 254d | dudukos | 165-189 | SellYes66¢ → 0¢ | $1,316 | +$1,316 +100% | — |
| 254d | volume1 | 140-164 | SellNo76¢ → 0¢ | $3,058 | +$3,058 +100% | — |
| 254d |  Prexpect | 190-214 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,061 | +$88 +4.3% | 21 |
| 254d | bigguy4u | 190-214 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,666 | +$90 +5.4% | 22 |
| 254d | Irondo | 215-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,601 | +$18 +0.2% | 20 |
| 254d |  Luninu | 190-214 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,470 | +$82 +5.6% | 22 |
| 254d | Luninu | 215-239 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,470 | −$8 −0.6% | — |
| 254d | Annica2 fills | 240+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $32,586 | +$41 +0.1% | 20 |
| 254d |  Fuhhhhh | 140-164 | BuyNo94¢ → 0¢ | $1,400 | −$1,400 −100% | 22 |
andy1681,242 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from February 9 12:00 PM ET to February 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 140-164 means the market gives it about 100%.