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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 400-424 | 100% | +46 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <300 | 0% | −2 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-324 | 0% | −4 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 325-349 | 0% | −9 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 350-374 | 0% | −18 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 375-399 | 0% | −28 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 425-449 | 0% | −21 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 450-474 | 0% | −6 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 475-499 | 0% | −2 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-524 | 0% | −2 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 525-549 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 550+ | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 645d | SquidGame-326 | 450-474 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,855 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 645d | FoldingNuts272 | 425-449 | BuyNo>99¢ | $27,639 | +$35 +0.1% | 20 |
| 645d | noovd4 fills | 400-424 | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $8,667 | +$3,100 +36% | 20 |
| 645d | 0x31e7018c67d7d323de8defd89b8d880427ef4ec4 fills | 400-424 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $6,836 | +$371 +5.4% | 20 |
| 645d |  Gustav4 | 400-424 | BuyYes100¢ | $1,849 | +$9 +0.5% | 20 |
| 645d |  moomoomoo | 400-424 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,245 | +$23 +1.0% | 20 |
| 645d | glarity | 400-424 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,179 | +$42 +1.0% | 20 |
| 645d | astromage3 fills | 425-449 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,580 | +$37 +1.0% | 20 |
| 645d |  Prexpect2 fills | 400-424 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,229 | +$56 +1.3% | 20 |
| 645d |  Faladian2 fills | 400-424 | SellYes85¢ → 100¢ | $2,930 | −$504 −17% | — |
| 645d |  VegemiteLover2 | 400-424 | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$344 +26% | 20 |
| 645d | xc78622a49b7f38b356453b35c649c20b859bd82e | 475-499 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,442 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 645d | astromage | 475-499 | SellNo100¢ | $1,803 | −$9 −0.5% | — |
| 645d | Smile7 | 400-424 | SellNo43¢ → 0¢ | $1,650 | +$1,650 +100% | — |
| 645d | Faladian | 400-424 | BuyYes50¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$2,000 +100% | 20 |
| 645d |  pinchi1337 | 475-499 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,902 | +$8 +0.4% | 20 |
| 645d | astromage | 450-474 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,227 | +$41 +3.3% | 20 |
| 645d | SquidGame-326 | 450-474 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,742 | +$115 +6.6% | 20 |
| 645d | astromage | 475-499 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,192 | +$8 +0.7% | 20 |
| 645d |  Burnmoneyuser | 375-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,241 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 645d |  Euan | 375-399 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,040 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 645d | Snoorrason | 375-399 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,880 | +$120 +6.4% | 22 |
| 646d | Snoorrason2 fills | 350-374 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,009 | +$97 +2.4% | 21 |
| 646d | Lavs3838 | 325-349 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,239 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 646d |  catasus2 fills | 325-349 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,409 | +$109 +2.0% | 20 |
| 646d |  RiseAndSunny | 300-324 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,953 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 646d |  AgricultureSecretary | 300-324 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,461 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 646d | LiWei-232 | 300-324 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,077 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 646d |  Skovorodnikov | <300 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,798 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 646d | FoldingNuts2722 fills | 300-324 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,332 | +$18 +0.5% | 20 |
| 646d | Monster24 | 325-349 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,415 | +$40 +0.9% | 20 |
| 646d | Lavs3838 | <300 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,704 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 646d | FoldingNuts272 | <300 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,098 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 647d | RiseAndSunny | <300 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,171 | −$44 −2.0% | — |
| 647d | BeN | <300 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,054 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 647d | Lavs3838 | <300 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,241 | +$18 +1.4% | 20 |
| 648d | startrader644 | <300 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,671 | +$198 +12% | 22 |
This is a market on the number of tweets Elon Musk will post between January 10 and January 17.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 400-424 means the market gives it about 100%.