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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 115-139 | 100% | +82 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | −37 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | −30 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | −8 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 284d |  Stairs. | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,399 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 284d | samponcudinti | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,056 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 284d | cucuruzblindat | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,969 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 284d | Toporceanu | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,157 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 284d | LAKAJSJS | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,159 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 284d |  Tomka081112 fills | 140-164 | SellNo88¢ → 100¢ | $3,932 | −$517 −13% | — |
| 284d |  eI0zwvzk | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,114 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 284d |  Vivalavidaaaaa | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,907 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 284d | 0x265f…a448 | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,246 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 284d | 0x265f…a448 | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,829 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 284d | Inconsequential-Complaint | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,024 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 284d | besmart2025 | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,416 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 284d | besmart2025 | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,293 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 284d |  noreasapa | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,478 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 284d | Toporceanu | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,594 | +$14 +0.3% | 20 |
| 284d |  PredictionYogi6 fills | 115-139 | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $8,873 | +$3,085 +35% | 29 |
| 284d |  KARMASUR | 115-139 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,353 | +$16 +1.2% | 20 |
| 284d | Poory | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,871 | +$11 +0.6% | 20 |
| 284d | Wild-Manner | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$14 +1.1% | 20 |
| 284d | forestk | 115-139 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,096 | +$31 +1.0% | 20 |
| 284d |  BoringPunter | 140-164 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,372 | +$28 +2.0% | 21 |
| 284d |  suraxy | 115-139 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$103 +5.2% | 22 |
| 284d |  ChunkyMonky | 115-139 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,900 | +$100 +5.3% | 22 |
| 284d |  Annica2 fills | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,390 | +$28 +0.2% | 20 |
| 284d | BoringPunter | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $19,980 | +$20 +0.1% | 20 |
| 284d | theinsider1 | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,026 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 284d | Cel002 fills | 115-139 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $8,800 | +$603 +6.9% | 22 |
| 284d | MovingForward | 140-164 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,547 | +$82 +5.3% | 22 |
| 284d | MovingForward | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,547 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 284d | influenz.eth2 fills | 165-189 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,783 | +$16 +0.6% | 20 |
| 284d | influenz.eth | 140-164 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,357 | +$102 +7.5% | 22 |
| 284d | Laurenman | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,801 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 284d | Poory | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,592 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 284d | MovingForward | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,446 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 284d |  500AndADream2 fills | 115-139 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $2,261 | +$240 +11% | 23 |
| 284d | Houdray2 fills | 115-139 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $2,479 | +$300 +12% | 24 |
| 284d |  awaylot | 140-164 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,076 | +$231 +11% | 23 |
| 284d | cucuruzblindat | 115-139 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,695 | +$276 +16% | 25 |
| 284d | eI0zwvzk | 115-139 | BuyYes81¢ → 100¢ | $3,348 | +$771 +23% | 26 |
| 284d | BoringPunter | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,172 | +$16 +0.1% | 20 |
| 284d | Skillfa | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,294 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 284d | BoringPunter | 215-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,834 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 285d | maxiim | 140-164 | SellYes28¢ → 0¢ | $1,268 | +$1,268 +100% | — |
| 285d | besmart2025 | 165-189 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,391 | +$26 +1.8% | 21 |
| 285d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 190-214 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,853 | +$14 +0.5% | 20 |
| 285d | Vivalavidaaaaa | 140-164 | BuyNo71¢ → 100¢ | $3,500 | +$1,412 +40% | 30 |
| 285d | influenz.eth | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,017 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 285d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 165-189 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,878 | +$158 +5.5% | 22 |
| 285d | 0x265f…a4482 fills | 165-189 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $7,707 | +$339 +4.4% | 21 |
| 285d | Matelleti | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 285d | 7225aa | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,041 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 285d | advicegu | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,052 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 285d |  Gustav43 fills | 190-214 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $15,375 | +$108 +0.7% | 20 |
| 285d | 54da | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,209 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 285d | HuatzTTM | 215-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 285d | besmart2025 | 190-214 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,124 | −$36 −0.7% | — |
| 285d |  Kinganibus | 115-139 | SellYes63¢ → 100¢ | $1,008 | −$592 −59% | — |
| 285d | besmart2025 | 215-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,697 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 285d | Unique-Insurgence | 115-139 | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$290 +29% | 30 |
| 285d | PredictionYogi4 fills | 215-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,973 | +$50 +0.3% | 20 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from January 10 12:00 PM ET to January 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 115-139 means the market gives it about 100%.