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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90-114 | 100% | +83 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −38 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 276d |  Prexpect | 215-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,758 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 277d |  BoringPunter | 190-214 | SellNo>99¢ | $19,977 | −$20 −0.1% | — |
| 277d | BoringPunter | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,990 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 277d | BoringPunter | 215-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,608 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 277d | Ashurnasirpal | 190-214 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,343 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 277d | Prexpect | 190-214 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,122 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 277d | Weregin | 215-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,861 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 277d |  LinaBell🦊3 fills | 190-214 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,159 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 277d |  CoinTrick | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,180 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 277d | bailangda | 190-214 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,083 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 277d |  Dafdafv66 | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,337 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 277d |  Iamnailong | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,392 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 277d |  stauffen | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,122 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 277d |  Moonshooternow | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,934 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 277d | Frontiersman | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,385 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 277d | BaaDsHa | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,197 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 277d | SuperBet69 | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,652 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 277d |  Leirth | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,021 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 277d | dovattia | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,979 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 277d | Toporceanu | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,053 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 277d | 28s | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,927 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 277d | cucuruzblindat | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,568 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 277d | femoz | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,146 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 277d | bnone | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,550 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 277d | 0x265f…a448 | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,888 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 277d |  guy5050 | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 277d | GUIREmethod | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,249 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 277d |  ggmggn2 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,990 | +$10 +0.3% | 20 |
| 277d | Wataaa2 fills | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,149 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 277d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,683 | +$15 +0.3% | 20 |
| 277d | PredictionYogi | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $11,212 | +$22 +0.2% | 20 |
| 277d |  KARMASUR | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $49,900 | +$100 +0.2% | 20 |
| 277d |  Annica5 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $22,680 | +$162 +0.7% | 20 |
| 277d | PredictionYogi | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $17,259 | −$17 −0.1% | — |
| 277d | Toporceanu | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,043 | +$13 +0.4% | 20 |
| 277d | KARMASUR | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,018 | +$101 +1.0% | 20 |
| 277d |  Gustav42 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,661 | +$76 +2.1% | 21 |
| 277d | paulhui666 | 90-114 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,109 | +$39 +3.6% | 21 |
| 277d |  ShadooowOnPM | 90-114 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,213 | −$69 −5.7% | — |
| 277d | Hiworld.3 fills | 90-114 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $34,423 | +$2,707 +7.9% | 22 |
| 277d | cucuruzblindat2 fills | 90-114 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $2,336 | +$235 +10% | 23 |
| 277d | O.G.Degen | 90-114 | SellYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,121 | −$316 −28% | — |
| 277d | Annica2 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $21,349 | +$26 +0.1% | 20 |
| 277d | Houdray2 fills | 90-114 | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $2,381 | +$672 +28% | 27 |
| 277d | 0xe445…055b | 90-114 | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $2,943 | +$766 +26% | 27 |
| 277d | PredictionYogi5 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $14,685 | +$98 +0.7% | 20 |
| 277d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $13,013 | −$13 −0.1% | — |
| 277d | SuperBet69 | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,336 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 277d | Gustav4 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,272 | +$10 +0.3% | 20 |
| 277d | sushibot | 140-164 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,194 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 |
| 277d | besmart20252 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,697 | +$53 +1.4% | 20 |
| 277d | 0xe445…055b | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,972 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 277d | AlexPro2 fills | 90-114 | SellNo63¢ → 0¢ | $4,475 | +$4,475 +100% | — |
| 277d | O.G.Degen | 90-114 | BuyYes49¢ → 100¢ | $1,089 | +$1,133 +104% | 30 |
| 277d |  500AndADream | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$33 +1.3% | 20 |
| 277d | BoringPunter2 fills | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,475 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 277d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,981 | +$19 +0.1% | 20 |
| 277d | Moonshooternow | 90-114 | BuyYes49¢ → 100¢ | $1,938 | +$2,036 +105% | 30 |
| 277d | Moonshooternow | 90-114 | SellNo55¢ → 0¢ | $1,814 | +$1,814 +100% | — |
| 277d | AvishaiBass | 140-164 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,431 | +$75 +3.1% | 21 |
Elocns908 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from January 17 12:00 PM ET to January 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 90-114 means the market gives it about 100%.