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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 140-159 | 100% | +65 pts | +83 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | −4 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −55 pts | −18 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −8 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −1 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94d | Knowing-Arthur-Ash | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,914 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 94d | anon.1980.123 | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $16,659 | −$17 −0.1% | — |
| 94d | 0x7111…7c21 | 140-159 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,014 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 94d | Knowing-Arthur-Ash | 140-159 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,271 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 94d | niceShare | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,057 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 94d | Needy-Antelope | 140-159 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,330 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 94d | Self-Reliant-Fatigue | 140-159 | SellYes>99¢ | $8,235 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 94d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 140-159 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,133 | +$17 +0.2% | 20 |
| 94d |  jesterthegoose2 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,896 | +$176 +4.5% | 21 |
| 94d | Actual-Ladle | 160-179 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,065 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 94d |  y111m11 | 160-179 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,742 | +$92 +5.3% | 22 |
| 94d | 0xB177dvgu7 | 160-179 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,499 | +$96 +6.4% | 22 |
| 94d | Intelligent-Tax | 160-179 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,295 | +$144 +11% | 23 |
| 94d | Intelligent-Tax | 140-159 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,072 | +$119 +11% | 23 |
| 94d |  Hunter1207 | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,522 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 94d | Assured-Familiarity | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,765 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 94d | Needy-Antelope | 140-159 | BuyYes50¢ → 100¢ | $1,166 | +$1,155 +99% | 33 |
| 94d | Needy-Antelope | 140-159 | SellNo52¢ → 0¢ | $1,230 | +$1,230 +100% | — |
| 95d | 0B06 | 180-199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,301 | +$23 +1.0% | 20 |
| 95d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 180-199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,736 | +$20 +1.2% | 20 |
| 95d | jesterthegoose | 140-159 | SellNo65¢ → 0¢ | $1,960 | +$1,960 +100% | — |
| 95d |  Elonurmom | 180-199 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,213 | −$21 −1.7% | — |
| 95d | anon.1980.1234 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $16,190 | +$246 +1.5% | 20 |
| 95d | anon.1980.123 | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,916 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 95d |  Espagan | 140-159 | BuyNo80¢ → 0¢ | $3,550 | −$3,550 −100% | 25 |
| 95d | Espagan | 180-199 | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $3,613 | −$344 −9.5% | — |
| 95d |  Glonas-801 | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,009 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 95d | Needy-Antelope | 140-159 | BuyNo84¢ → 0¢ | $1,979 | −$1,979 −100% | 26 |
| 95d | Intelligent-Tax3 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,908 | +$216 +5.5% | 21 |
| 95d | startrader | 140-159 | BuyNo90¢ → 0¢ | $1,800 | −$1,800 −100% | 23 |
| 95d | jesterthegoose2 fills | 140-159 | BuyNo71¢ → 0¢ | $8,786 | −$8,786 −100% | 28 |
| 95d | Actual-Ladle | 180-199 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,070 | −$46 −4.3% | — |
| 95d | pumpkincousin29 | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,000 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 95d | Ag500k | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,702 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 95d | luca88 | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,396 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 95d | Self-Reliant-Fatigue | 140-159 | BuyYes69¢ → 100¢ | $1,230 | +$553 +45% | 28 |
| 95d | buputong | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,446 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 95d | buputong | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,534 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 95d | suifeng668 | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,100 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 95d | dafei888 | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,767 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 95d | pingfan666 | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 95d | nbjui1 | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,000 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 95d |  triple-purple | 140-159 | BuyYes54¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$2,106 +84% | 28 |
| 95d | triple-purple | 160-179 | SellYes41¢ → 0¢ | $1,072 | +$1,072 +100% | — |
| 95d | Actual-Ladle | 180-199 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,065 | +$50 +4.7% | 21 |
| 95d | NabFire11 | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,015 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 95d | 0xB177dvgu7 | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,553 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 95d | bipbipbop | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,270 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 95d | logesh32 | 180-199 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,493 | +$112 +7.5% | 22 |
| 95d | carboyant | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,292 | +$13 +0.2% | 20 |
| 95d | anon.1980.1232 fills | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,680 | +$95 +1.4% | 20 |
| 95d |  BigMackyG | 140-159 | BuyYes33¢ → 100¢ | $1,343 | +$2,731 +203% | 29 |
| 95d |  LinaBell🦊 | 120-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,026 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 95d | bipbipbop | 140-159 | BuyNo66¢ → 0¢ | $1,026 | −$1,026 −100% | 25 |
| 95d | pingfan666 | 120-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,088 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 95d | Espagan | 180-199 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $3,680 | +$277 +7.5% | 21 |
| 95d | Espagan | 200-219 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,699 | −$93 −2.5% | — |
| 96d | CakeBake | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,689 | +$11 +0.3% | 20 |
| 96d | nole-ksum | 120-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,050 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 96d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 120-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
0x146fb4c54,750 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 14 12:00 PM ET to July 21, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 140-159 means the market gives it about 100%.