Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 280-299 | 100% | +48 pts | +99 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −3 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −1 pts | −18 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −2 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −2 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −1 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −35 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −32 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | −6 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88d | niceShare | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,420 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 88d | Papuasus | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 88d |  Henryxlsurf | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,677 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 88d | EEGI | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,054 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 88d |  LinabellAccountStolen | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,586 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 88d | Intelligent-Tax | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,234 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 88d | Intelligent-Tax | 280-299 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,089 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 88d | suifeng668 | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,760 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 88d | Actual-Ladle | 280-299 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,500 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 88d | GOTOPNO1 | 280-299 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,022 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 88d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,290 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 88d | KKTTFENG | 280-299 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,550 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 88d | Elonboy | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,200 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 88d | YuzuLemon | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,316 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 88d | EMbrace | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,292 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 88d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,774 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 88d | sazzaa2 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $7,818 | +$349 +4.5% | 21 |
| 88d | pupupuup | 260-279 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $8,000 | +$849 +11% | 23 |
| 88d | karen2p | 280-299 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$146 +2.9% | 21 |
| 88d | tukki | 260-279 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$47 +1.2% | 20 |
| 88d |  jesterthegoose | 280-299 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $6,809 | +$113 +1.7% | 21 |
| 88d | AnonymousPerson2 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,688 | +$12 +0.3% | 20 |
| 88d |  upont | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,262 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 88d | dafei888 | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,508 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 88d | onekey02 | 300-319 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,114 | +$7 +0.6% | 20 |
| 88d | BinaryBaron | 300-319 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,057 | +$49 +0.8% | 20 |
| 88d | anon.1980.123 | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,927 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 88d | d008 | 300-319 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$28 +1.4% | 20 |
| 88d | dafei8882 fills | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,023 | +$15 +0.3% | 20 |
| 88d | BinaryBaron2 fills | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,439 | +$13 +0.1% | 20 |
| 88d | Actual-Ladle | 300-319 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,513 | −$44 −2.9% | — |
| 88d | Adorable-Initial | 300-319 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,000 | +$101 +1.3% | 20 |
| 88d | Parallel-Trader | 300-319 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,498 | +$78 +3.1% | 21 |
| 88d | upont | 320-339 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,136 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 |
| 88d | upont | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,139 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 88d | suifeng668 | 320-339 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,889 | +$11 +0.6% | 20 |
| 88d | suifeng668 | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,327 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 88d | karen2p | 260-279 | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $1,580 | +$386 +24% | 25 |
| 88d | pingfan666 | 320-339 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,955 | +$16 +0.5% | 20 |
| 88d | nbjui1 | 320-339 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,276 | +$25 +0.6% | 20 |
| 88d | Actual-Ladle | 300-319 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,445 | +$111 +7.7% | 22 |
| 88d | Optimal-Overclocking | 300-319 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,700 | +$340 +9.2% | 22 |
| 88d | Jasonzz | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,896 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 88d | carboyant | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,373 | +$10 +0.3% | 20 |
| 88d | anon.1980.123 | 320-339 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,846 | +$87 +1.5% | 20 |
| 88d | d0082 fills | 320-339 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,100 | +$73 +2.4% | 20 |
| 88d | carboyant | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 88d | Amir10001 | 320-339 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $7,989 | +$223 +2.8% | 21 |
| 88d | onekey02 | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,761 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 88d |  aljefe | 320-339 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,856 | −$144 −7.8% | — |
| 88d |  Boss7 | 340-359 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,988 | +$30 +0.6% | 20 |
| 88d | 0xB177dvgu7 | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,183 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 88d | tianjiyuyunzhilu2 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,985 | +$16 +0.1% | 20 |
| 89d | fghsrthrhrshrsth | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,498 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 89d | xiaojido202 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 89d | 0xB177dvgu7 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,182 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 89d | nbjui1 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,133 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 89d | suifeng668 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,002 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 89d | weatherprod4 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $15,392 | +$122 +0.8% | 20 |
| 89d | carboyant | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,212 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
dz1ft43,843 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 21 12:00 PM ET to July 28, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 280-299 means the market gives it about 100%.