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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 325-349 | 100% | +62 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <300 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-324 | 0% | −3 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 350-374 | 0% | −28 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 375-399 | 0% | −10 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-424 | 0% | −2 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 425-449 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 450-474 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 475-499 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-524 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 525-549 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 550-574 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 575-599 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 600-624 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 625-649 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 650+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 567d | UMAd-291 | 325-349 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,809 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 567d |  ElonSpam | 425-449 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,307 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 567d | Kepo | 375-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,314 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 567d |  0xa8C4d45000b7976d897Ab79c21780E46faAA848 | 325-349 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,857 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 567d | IZY | 375-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,069 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 567d | SirDragon | 350-374 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,399 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 567d |  NEUMAXION | 325-349 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,154 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 568d | AreWeNotEntertained | 325-349 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,381 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 568d | CookeMonster | 325-349 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,294 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 568d | AreWeNotEntertained | 350-374 | BuyNo>99¢ | $56,390 | +$56 +0.1% | 20 |
| 568d |  Prexpect | 325-349 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,298 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 568d | M888 | 350-374 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 568d | astromage | 325-349 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,397 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 568d | astromage | 375-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,196 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 568d | leiger2 fills | 350-374 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,485 | +$115 +3.3% | 20 |
| 568d | leiger | 325-349 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,791 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 568d | leiger | 375-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,494 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 568d |  Gustav4 | 325-349 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,803 | +$59 +1.0% | 20 |
| 568d | cipherpilot2 fills | 325-349 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,022 | +$42 +1.0% | 20 |
| 568d | cipherpilot | 400-424 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,016 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 568d | please1000 | 325-349 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,067 | −$33 −3.0% | — |
| 568d |  PredictionYogi | 325-349 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,321 | −$27 −2.0% | — |
| 568d | glarity | 350-374 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,097 | +$12 +1.1% | 20 |
| 568d | glarity3 fills | 325-349 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,576 | +$88 +1.3% | 20 |
| 568d | Impassioned-Vehicle | 325-349 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,141 | −$17 −1.5% | — |
| 568d | Thanatos17 | 350-374 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,057 | −$21 −1.9% | — |
| 568d | 0xeccdededcc3 fills | 325-349 | BuyYes66¢ → 100¢ | $3,588 | +$1,870 +52% | 20 |
| 568d | SirDragon | 350-374 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,310 | +$91 +4.0% | 20 |
| 568d | Linnnnn | 325-349 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,225 | +$68 +5.6% | 20 |
| 568d |  cbo34 | 325-349 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,491 | −$130 −8.7% | — |
| 568d | astromage2 fills | 375-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,641 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 568d | cbo34 | 325-349 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,368 | +$253 +19% | 20 |
| 568d |  LookBehindYou | 325-349 | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $2,079 | +$533 +26% | 20 |
| 568d | leiger2 fills | 375-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,283 | +$14 +0.4% | 20 |
| 568d |  catasus | 350-374 | SellYes55¢ → 0¢ | $1,719 | +$1,719 +100% | — |
| 568d |  DickTurbin | 425-449 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 568d | DickTurbin2 fills | 400-424 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,317 | +$17 +0.7% | 20 |
| 568d |  kirkhogan | 400-424 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,291 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 |
| 568d | 44iq | 425-449 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,096 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 568d | 44iq | 425-449 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,097 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 568d |  CallmeEuphoria | 375-399 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,020 | +$45 +4.4% | 21 |
| 568d |  AndyETH | 325-349 | BuyNo71¢ → 0¢ | $1,083 | −$1,083 −100% | 30 |
| 568d |  Zazazoooo | 425-449 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,150 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 568d | DickTurbin | 450-474 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 568d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | 325-349 | SellNo65¢ → 0¢ | $1,126 | +$1,126 +100% | — |
| 568d |  qskdfsadvkndskjfg3 fills | 325-349 | BuyNo75¢ → 0¢ | $7,822 | −$7,822 −100% | 27 |
| 568d | 0xeccdededcc5 fills | 350-374 | BuyYes70¢ → 0¢ | $7,370 | −$7,370 −100% | 28 |
| 568d | AZwater | 400-424 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,980 | +$20 +1.0% | 20 |
| 568d |  VisionInfinite | 500-524 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,073 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 568d | AreWeNotEntertained | 300-324 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,032 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 568d | rwo | 300-324 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,876 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 568d | DickTurbin2 fills | 475-499 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,497 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 568d |  Debosnys2 fills | 375-399 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $4,798 | +$407 +8.5% | 22 |
| 568d | woshinibaba101 | 450-474 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,078 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 568d | ryanthebest | 300-324 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$32 +0.6% | 20 |
| 568d | ryanthebest | 300-324 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,122 | −$7 −0.6% | — |
| 568d | Vinivi4 fills | 300-324 | BuyNo>99¢ | $296,523 | +$356 +0.1% | 20 |
| 568d | 0xeccdededcc3 fills | 350-374 | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $4,664 | +$1,336 +29% | 26 |
| 568d |  lolboy4D | 350-374 | SellYes29¢ → 0¢ | $1,009 | +$1,009 +100% | — |
| 568d | ryanthebest | 375-399 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $2,357 | +$298 +13% | 23 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between March 28, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and April 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 325-349 means the market gives it about 100%.