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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 160-179 | 100% | +30 pts | +85 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −16 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −14 pts | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −2 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | 0 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | — | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 169d | Muzamilhussain | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,228 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 169d | Flaky-Bidding | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,884 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 169d | c76A | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,365 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 169d | jostkia | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,199 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 169d | Last-Chicory | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,191 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 169d | kyj1435 | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,450 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 169d |  hidden-james | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,016 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 169d |  FraterTetractous | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,951 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 169d | OstapP | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,558 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 169d | OstapP | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,233 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 169d | yuanbao20120815 | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,397 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 169d | Dense-Muscat | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,099 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 169d | Jasonzz | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,063 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 169d | fdsfsdfsd1005 | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,003 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 169d | fgdfgdfgdfgf1003 | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,005 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 169d |  Annica2 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $52,683 | +$60 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d | Annica3 fills | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $27,217 | +$130 +0.5% | 20 |
| 169d | fdsfsdfsd1005 | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,003 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d | rtseko | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,996 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d | What-Exchange-Builder-04 | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,008 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 169d | ostoto | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,837 | +$18 +0.2% | 20 |
| 169d | fgdfgdfgdfgf1003 | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,004 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 169d |  520111 | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,994 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 169d | finolip | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,087 | +$18 +0.3% | 20 |
| 169d | yuanbao20120815 | 160-179 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,390 | +$8 +0.6% | 20 |
| 169d | Antaaa79 | 180-199 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,006 | −$10 −1.0% | — |
| 169d | omegonx | 160-179 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,211 | +$9 +0.7% | 20 |
| 169d |  upont2 fills | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $14,985 | −$15 −0.1% | — |
| 169d | upont | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,895 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 169d | EyesOnMeeeee | 160-179 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,485 | +$15 +1.0% | 20 |
| 169d | Last-Chicory | 180-199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,170 | +$12 +1.0% | 20 |
| 169d | WCWS2 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,424 | +$76 +1.4% | 20 |
| 169d | Intelligent-Tax3 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $20,698 | +$667 +3.2% | 21 |
| 169d | Intelligent-Tax | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,094 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 169d | onekey02 | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $69,663 | +$70 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 160-179 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,770 | +$105 +2.2% | 21 |
| 169d | marbas | 160-179 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,092 | −$32 −2.9% | — |
| 169d | voroniko | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,358 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d | Klutzy-Blush | 160-179 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,319 | +$31 +2.4% | 21 |
| 169d | ylnopU | 160-179 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$28 +2.4% | 21 |
| 169d |  yes99 | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,026 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 169d | Nearcaster | 160-179 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,288 | +$29 +2.3% | 21 |
| 169d | Nearcaster | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,289 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 169d |  entyper | 160-179 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,086 | +$34 +3.1% | 21 |
| 169d |  MyLilKamala | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,028 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 169d | BinaryBaron2 fills | 160-179 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,358 | +$105 +3.1% | 21 |
| 169d | 0x2ff3…6f4f | 180-199 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,440 | +$33 +2.3% | 21 |
| 169d | xiao2222 | 180-199 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,932 | +$66 +3.4% | 21 |
| 169d | SLG007 | 180-199 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$68 +3.4% | 21 |
| 169d | SLG007 | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,066 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 169d | Last-Chicory | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,172 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 169d |  Boss78 fills | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $26,840 | +$171 +0.6% | 20 |
| 169d | geraldhew892 fills | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,524 | −$12 −0.5% | — |
| 169d | kyj1435 | 180-199 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,400 | +$52 +3.7% | 21 |
| 169d | kyj1435 | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,446 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 169d |  PM666 | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,800 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 169d | svmt | 160-179 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$219 +4.4% | 21 |
| 169d | lunluoren | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,461 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 169d | Coinupup | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,002 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 169d |  TukiAdo | 160-179 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,035 | −$87 −8.4% | — |
nimikm3,800 shares
KENWOOD30102,000 shares
Dr.napol1,700 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 1 12:00 PM ET to May 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 160-179 means the market gives it about 100%.