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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +85 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −72 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 163d |  Mei-ji | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 163d | anon.1980.123 | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,157 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 163d | bipbipbop | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,208 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 163d | bipbipbop | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,343 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 163d | Degenerate-Dude | 40-64 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,453 | −$22 −0.9% | — |
| 163d |  PredictionYogi | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,514 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 163d | Dense-Muscat | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,120 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 163d |  Prexpect | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,796 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 163d | luonanren | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 163d | linlang | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,999 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 163d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $10,853 | +$195 +1.8% | 20 |
| 163d | omegonx | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,317 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 163d | Irondo | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,613 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 163d |  Annica4 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $13,334 | +$170 +1.3% | 20 |
| 163d | FieryPhoenix | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,295 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 163d | xxtgsy | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,000 | +$14 +0.2% | 20 |
| 163d | PredictionYogi | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,114 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 164d | Intelligent-Tax | 40-64 | BuyYes100¢ | $3,493 | +$18 +0.5% | 20 |
| 164d | Intelligent-Tax | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,739 | +$11 +0.4% | 20 |
| 164d |  upont2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,327 | +$76 +1.0% | 20 |
| 164d | miyugyiftu66 | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,290 | +$10 +0.8% | 20 |
| 164d | ylnopU | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$16 +0.8% | 20 |
| 164d | venezuelain | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,984 | +$16 +0.8% | 20 |
| 164d | Ag500k | 65-89 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,984 | −$16 −0.8% | — |
| 164d | AnonymousPerson | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,984 | +$16 +0.8% | 20 |
| 164d |  y111m11 | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,865 | +$15 +0.8% | 20 |
| 164d | WCWS2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,249 | +$51 +1.6% | 20 |
| 164d | 1111 | 65-89 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,086 | −$43 −4.0% | — |
| 164d |  aq264 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,657 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 164d | Nimble-Outhouse | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,180 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 164d | wakakakakakaka | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,970 | +$30 +0.6% | 20 |
| 164d | Annica2 fills | 40-64 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $3,051 | −$209 −6.9% | — |
| 164d | bipbipbop | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,048 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 164d |  Nikzzy2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,079 | +$55 +1.8% | 20 |
| 164d | kyj1435 | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,582 | +$27 +1.7% | 20 |
| 164d | Bandz55 | 65-89 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,469 | −$36 −2.4% | — |
| 164d |  j258 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,978 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 164d |  s8c | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,659 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 164d |  256n | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,770 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 164d | rusgreat | 65-89 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,941 | +$60 +3.1% | 21 |
| 164d | buputong | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,495 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 164d | cvbbbr | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,978 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 164d |  hitp4fbw | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,805 | +$14 +0.2% | 20 |
| 164d |  AlmostRich | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,805 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 164d |  254j | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,880 | +$14 +0.2% | 20 |
| 164d |  r0b52ud011 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,820 | +$20 +0.3% | 20 |
| 164d |  vpgcftjt | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,805 | +$20 +0.3% | 20 |
| 164d | Frontiersman | 40-64 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,188 | −$53 −4.5% | — |
| 164d | Dense-Muscat | 65-89 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$126 +4.2% | 21 |
| 164d | Degenerate-Dude | 40-64 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,030 | +$159 +5.3% | 21 |
| 164d | Elonboy2 fills | <40 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,356 | −$154 −4.6% | — |
| 164d | jostkia | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,170 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 164d | YuzuLemon | <40 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,980 | −$20 −1.0% | — |
| 164d | AlmostRich | <40 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,771 | +$38 +1.0% | 20 |
| 164d | YuzuLemon | <40 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,871 | +$129 +6.9% | 22 |
| 164d | startrader | <40 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $6,744 | +$276 +4.1% | 21 |
| 164d | Elonboy2 fills | <40 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $3,207 | +$303 +9.4% | 22 |
| 164d | Bandz55 | 65-89 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,440 | +$65 +4.5% | 21 |
| 164d | Bandz55 | 40-64 | SellYes76¢ → 100¢ | $1,465 | −$463 −32% | — |
| 164d |  hkhjfgy | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,994 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
nimikm11,300 shares
Frank2345900 shares
MoneySignal578 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 11 12:00 PM ET to May 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.