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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 150–174 | 100% | +61 pts | +94 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <100 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100–124 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 125–149 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 175–199 | 0% | −55 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200–224 | 0% | −5 pts | −18 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 225–249 | 0% | 0 pts | −21 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 250–274 | 0% | 0 pts | −20 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 275–299 | 0% | — | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300–324 | 0% | — | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 325–349 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 350+ | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 518d | Rogu | 150–174 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 518d |  Z17773 fills | 175–199 | SellNo73¢ → 100¢ | $10,048 | −$3,717 −37% | — |
| 518d | Z1777 | 225–249 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,841 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 518d | Z1777 | 150–174 | SellYes>99¢ | $13,101 | −$13 −0.1% | — |
| 518d |  HTFK | 150–174 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,799 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 518d | F01501 | 150–174 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,696 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 518d | Probinhood | 150–174 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,175 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 519d | wokerjoesleeper | 150–174 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,632 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 519d |  CannaDough | 150–174 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,276 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 519d | Sagasta29 | 150–174 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,337 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 519d | Z.S. | 150–174 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,140 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 519d |  Prexpect | 150–174 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,769 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 519d |  Mehkan22 | 150–174 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,763 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 519d |  Gustav4 | 150–174 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 519d | cnfiguridofjnfke | 150–174 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,691 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 519d | GetMOGGED3 fills | 175–199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,990 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 519d | Rjjki | 150–174 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,700 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 519d |  catasus5 fills | 150–174 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $20,246 | +$1,588 +7.8% | 22 |
| 519d | glarity | 150–174 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,672 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 519d | astromage | 175–199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,637 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 519d | cipherpilot | 175–199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,618 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 519d | 0xtrading | 150–174 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,230 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 519d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 150–174 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $3,548 | +$377 +11% | 20 |
| 519d |  0xa8C4d45000b7976d897Ab79c21780E46faAA848 | 150–174 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,070 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 519d | Prexpect3 fills | 150–174 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $10,601 | +$264 +2.5% | 20 |
| 519d | Gustav42 fills | 150–174 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,577 | +$53 +2.1% | 21 |
| 519d |  TeflonMusk2 fills | 150–174 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,332 | +$100 +3.0% | 21 |
| 519d |  DOEM | 200–224 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,816 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 519d | meehai | 150–174 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,393 | +$151 +6.3% | 20 |
| 519d | MENACEMODETIM | 150–174 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $3,149 | +$351 +11% | 20 |
| 519d | wokerjoesleeper | 150–174 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $3,825 | +$675 +18% | 20 |
| 519d | dmdan | 200–224 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,032 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 519d | GGHunted | 175–199 | BuyYes30¢ → 0¢ | $1,273 | −$1,273 −100% | 31 |
| 519d |  bennya32 | 150–174 | SellYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,312 | −$225 −17% | — |
| 519d | alasdov | 150–174 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,652 | −$101 −6.1% | — |
| 519d | Jacob44 | 150–174 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$152 +3.0% | 21 |
| 519d | Drunky2 fills | 150–174 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,899 | −$149 −5.2% | — |
| 519d | IdolCrypto1 | 200–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,158 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 519d | Mirroring | 200–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,271 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 519d |  Netflixer | 200–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,337 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 519d | Z17772 fills | 150–174 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,400 | +$84 +3.5% | 21 |
| 519d | Z17776 fills | 175–199 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $10,019 | +$1,438 +14% | 21 |
| 519d | Isak1 | 150–174 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,332 | −$119 −9.0% | — |
| 519d | nonkenny902 fills | 350+ | SellNo>99¢ | $13,276 | −$13 −0.1% | — |
| 519d | Pel | 150–174 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,377 | +$54 +3.9% | 21 |
| 519d |  Cajetan | 175–199 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,114 | +$169 +15% | 24 |
| 519d | Cajetan | 200–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,278 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 519d | alasdov | 150–174 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,480 | +$228 +15% | 24 |
| 519d | Cajetan2 fills | 225–249 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,290 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 519d | tamiyascales | 150–174 | SellYes81¢ → 100¢ | $1,025 | −$244 −24% | — |
| 519d | cigarettes | 200–224 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,548 | +$12 +0.8% | 20 |
| 519d | cigarettes | 225–249 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,558 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 519d | cigarettes | 175–199 | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,310 | +$250 +19% | 24 |
| 519d | catasus2 fills | 175–199 | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $2,796 | +$661 +24% | 25 |
| 519d | Mehkan22 | 150–174 | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $2,171 | +$595 +27% | 26 |
| 519d | bebertt | 225–249 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,561 | −$6 −0.4% | — |
| 519d | Z177712 fills | 200–224 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $30,020 | +$3,031 +10% | 21 |
| 519d | CannaDough | 150–174 | BuyYes58¢ → 100¢ | $1,767 | +$1,271 +72% | 28 |
| 519d | cipherpilot | 225–249 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,256 | +$10 +0.3% | 20 |
| 520d | Jedi008 | 200–224 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,045 | −$67 −6.4% | — |
CavaSoTasty9,878 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between May 16, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and May 23, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 150–174 means the market gives it about 100%.