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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 125–149 | 100% | +19 pts | +83 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <100 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100–124 | 0% | −7 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 150–174 | 0% | −16 pts | −20 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 175–199 | 0% | −1 pts | −25 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200–224 | 0% | 0 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 225–249 | 0% | — | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 250–274 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 275–299 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300–324 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 325–349 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 350+ | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 512d | krakenhall | 125–149 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,029 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 512d |  catasus2 fills | 125–149 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $8,491 | −$435 −5.1% | — |
| 512d |  CannaDough | 125–149 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,483 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 512d |  Mehkan222 fills | 125–149 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $5,663 | −$240 −4.2% | — |
| 512d |  Gustav4 | 125–149 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 512d |  lucid-NEXUS-amused | 125–149 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 512d |  purpH | 125–149 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,989 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 512d | Rjjki | 125–149 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 512d | hasso422 | 125–149 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,285 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 512d | 0rocky007 | 150–174 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,508 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 512d | cipherpilot2 fills | 125–149 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,740 | +$20 +0.2% | 20 |
| 512d | glarity2 fills | 125–149 | BuyYes>99¢ | $13,690 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 512d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 125–149 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $2,669 | +$239 +9.0% | 21 |
| 512d | noovd | 125–149 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,982 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 512d | 0x65c65De373A10e5f319f722 fills | 125–149 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,551 | +$18 +0.4% | 20 |
| 512d |  laobill5 fills | 225–249 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,997 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 512d | Mehkan222 fills | 125–149 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $5,144 | +$759 +15% | 22 |
| 512d | krakenhall | 125–149 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,900 | +$132 +4.5% | 21 |
| 512d | krakenhall | 200–224 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 512d |  ksl-second2 fills | 125–149 | SellYes80¢ → 100¢ | $3,381 | −$853 −25% | — |
| 512d |  lolboy4D | 125–149 | SellYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,095 | −$182 −17% | — |
| 512d | managerindia | 125–149 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,598 | +$87 +5.5% | 22 |
| 512d | PredictionYogi3 fills | 125–149 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $5,153 | −$306 −5.9% | — |
| 512d | astromage | 175–199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,209 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 512d | ektojb | 125–149 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,164 | −$49 −2.3% | — |
| 512d | Gustav43 fills | 125–149 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $3,947 | +$276 +7.0% | 22 |
| 512d | Siziriv | 125–149 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,104 | −$28 −2.6% | — |
| 512d |  abacaxi | 175–199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,204 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 512d | StopNoticing | 125–149 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,166 | −$30 −2.6% | — |
| 512d | cigarettes2 fills | 175–199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,974 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 512d |  AkininaAnna | 125–149 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,011 | +$29 +1.0% | 20 |
| 512d |  Z17774 fills | 125–149 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $11,500 | +$169 +1.5% | 20 |
| 512d | Z17772 fills | 150–174 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,300 | +$118 +1.4% | 20 |
| 512d | edc-10 | 200–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,462 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 513d | Gustav4 | 150–174 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,407 | +$106 +7.5% | 22 |
| 513d | cigarettes | 150–174 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,228 | +$92 +7.5% | 22 |
| 513d | ksl-second2 fills | 125–149 | BuyYes69¢ → 100¢ | $2,905 | +$1,296 +45% | 25 |
| 513d |  AgricultureSecretary | 100–124 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,326 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 513d |  Prexpect2 fills | 100–124 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,615 | +$133 +2.9% | 20 |
| 513d | laobill | 300–324 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,096 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 513d | toosmartfortrap | 100–124 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,157 | +$7 +0.6% | 20 |
| 513d | shardiv | 100–124 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,660 | +$33 +0.9% | 20 |
| 513d | Ignite4 | 125–149 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,114 | +$193 +17% | 24 |
| 513d |  3f5ge45g4f4f | 175–199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,115 | +$25 +0.8% | 20 |
| 513d |  ElonSpam | 175–199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,717 | +$14 +0.8% | 20 |
| 513d | glarity4 fills | 100–124 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,817 | +$97 +2.0% | 20 |
| 513d | MyNameIsDarkKnight3 fills | 100–124 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,737 | +$28 +0.4% | 20 |
| 513d | 0rocky0073 fills | 100–124 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,370 | +$21 +0.3% | 20 |
| 513d |  DOEM | 100–124 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,069 | −$35 −1.7% | — |
| 513d | leiger | 100–124 | BuyNo100¢ | $2,452 | +$12 +0.5% | 20 |
| 513d | cipherpilot2 fills | 100–124 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,096 | +$92 +1.5% | 20 |
| 513d | madalinionescu | 125–149 | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $1,001 | +$264 +26% | 23 |
| 513d | ElonSpam3 fills | 200–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,396 | +$19 +0.2% | 20 |
| 513d | ElonSpam2 fills | 225–249 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,591 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 513d | Z177716 fills | 175–199 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $37,989 | +$2,001 +5.3% | 21 |
| 513d | PredictionYogi | 150–174 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,574 | +$198 +13% | 22 |
| 513d | cipherpilot | 225–249 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,659 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 513d | edc-103 fills | 350+ | SellNo>99¢ | $9,083 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 513d |  thefakenick | 275–299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,457 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 514d |  BigBlackGorilla | 150–174 | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,288 | +$210 +16% | 22 |
Tendollars100 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between May 23, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and May 30, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 125–149 means the market gives it about 100%.