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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <40 | 100% | +35 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −35 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 166d | Actual-Ladle | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,021 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 166d | yolol | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,112 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 166d | Degenerate-Dude | <40 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,645 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 166d | Dense-Muscat | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,340 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 166d | 0x21d3…8d3f | <40 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,140 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 166d | deyi962451 | <40 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,499 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 166d |  520111 | <40 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 166d | BinaryBaron3 fills | <40 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,921 | +$19 +0.3% | 20 |
| 166d | HuatzTTM | <40 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 166d |  Annica2 fills | 40-64 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,807 | +$61 +0.8% | 20 |
| 166d | unimportant | <40 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,791 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 166d |  PredictionYogi | <40 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,854 | +$24 +0.3% | 20 |
| 166d | carboyant2 fills | <40 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,111 | +$11 +0.3% | 20 |
| 166d | BinaryBaron | 40-64 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,313 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 166d | carboyant | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,112 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 166d | Bigmac69 | <40 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,536 | +$15 +0.6% | 20 |
| 166d | shiratoki | <40 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,176 | +$12 +1.0% | 20 |
| 166d | shiratoki | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,177 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 166d | yolol | <40 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $10,000 | +$104 +1.0% | 20 |
| 166d | ylnopU | <40 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$35 +1.7% | 21 |
| 166d | WCWS | 40-64 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,273 | +$24 +1.1% | 20 |
| 166d | xiao22222 fills | 40-64 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,501 | +$99 +4.0% | 21 |
| 166d |  y111m11 | 40-64 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,817 | +$47 +2.6% | 21 |
| 166d | Intelligent-Tax | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,367 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 166d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | <40 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,756 | +$110 +4.0% | 21 |
| 166d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 40-64 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $5,886 | +$231 +3.9% | 21 |
| 166d | 0xbea8…36ef | <40 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,899 | +$59 +3.1% | 21 |
| 166d | 0xbea8…36ef | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,023 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 166d | Intelligent-Tax | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $11,161 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 166d | anon.1980.1233 fills | <40 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $8,187 | +$440 +5.4% | 21 |
| 166d | Annica | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $32,013 | +$32 +0.1% | 20 |
| 166d | Guray | <40 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,224 | +$78 +6.4% | 22 |
| 166d | TomSargent | 40-64 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,388 | +$280 +8.3% | 22 |
| 166d | xxtgsy | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,000 | +$18 +0.2% | 20 |
| 166d | TomSargent | <40 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $4,850 | +$433 +8.9% | 22 |
| 166d | lunluoren | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,360 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 166d | Po1yBot-QI6GR4DKSp | <40 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $5,424 | +$527 +9.7% | 22 |
| 166d | Dense-Muscat | 40-64 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,999 | +$345 +12% | 23 |
| 166d | Intelligent-Tax | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,582 | +$53 +0.3% | 20 |
| 166d | Intelligent-Tax | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $19,793 | −$20 −0.1% | — |
| 166d |  Nikzzy | <40 | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $3,658 | +$798 +22% | 25 |
| 166d | Degenerate-Dude | 65-89 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,102 | −$7 −0.6% | — |
| 166d | Nikzzy | 65-89 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,408 | −$15 −0.6% | — |
| 166d | dogsupper | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,766 | +$28 +0.7% | 20 |
| 166d | rusgreat | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,984 | +$16 +0.8% | 20 |
| 166d |  juhuaguan | <40 | SellYes71¢ → 100¢ | $4,759 | −$1,976 −42% | — |
| 166d | onekey02 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,972 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 166d | cccdeq | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,609 | +$39 +1.1% | 20 |
| 166d |  thtf | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,823 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 166d |  djeon | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,823 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 166d |  Boss77 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $39,699 | +$106 +0.3% | 20 |
| 166d |  thfotsi | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,736 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 166d |  gisnyir | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,915 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 166d |  ulwwxft | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,818 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 167d | CJLabs | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,788 | +$31 +1.1% | 20 |
| 167d | kyj1435 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,540 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 167d | FieryPhoenix | <40 | SellNo34¢ → 0¢ | $1,417 | +$1,417 +100% | — |
| 167d | SPYstar | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,500 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 167d | BradleyWhitman | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,050 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 167d |  noh16894 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,989 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
nimikm16,000 shares
dz1ft4,562 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 9 12:00 PM ET to May 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for <40 means the market gives it about 100%.