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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 260-279 | 100% | +64 pts | +98 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −1 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | — | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −1 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −14 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −9 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −2 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 339d | arbandy | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,390 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 339d | newitt | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,198 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 339d |  a1a1 | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,610 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 339d | Lfgm77 | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,038 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 339d | Bitgod | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 339d |  CryptoMahakala | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,298 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 339d |  MrLucker | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,097 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 339d |  Ivan76 | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,350 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 339d |  Fablurou | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,051 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 339d | Snipko | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,177 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 339d | Cooked-Supermarket | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,301 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 339d | RealSK | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,418 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 339d | glenncal2 fills | 260-279 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $4,169 | −$168 −4.0% | — |
| 339d | Basiko | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,905 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 339d | Sibas | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,343 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 339d | Seregan | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,493 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 339d | Seregan | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,437 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 340d | costcostaff012 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,639 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 340d | wedemboiz | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $14,992 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 340d |  Annica9 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes71¢ → 100¢ | $17,747 | +$7,234 +41% | 25 |
| 340d |  MettaWorldPeace00 | 280-299 | SellNo100¢ | $1,323 | −$7 −0.5% | — |
| 340d |  PredictionYogi5 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $9,130 | +$1,496 +16% | 24 |
| 340d | hfwhefhwehf | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,304 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 340d | Fuzzy-Peace2 fills | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,168 | −$8 −0.2% | — |
| 340d |  OuchMyBalls | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,575 | −$16 −0.4% | — |
| 340d | hytolie | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,121 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 340d | GigglesGus2 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $15,000 | +$16 +0.1% | 20 |
| 340d | Seregan | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,815 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 340d | heshihuiben | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,057 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 340d |  zwxokx2 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,403 | +$46 +0.4% | 20 |
| 340d | mokiter | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,778 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 340d | zwxokx | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,511 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 340d | jilok | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,792 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 340d | liko55 | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,832 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 340d | Sibas | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,496 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 340d | astrojimper | 260-279 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,020 | −$11 −1.1% | — |
| 340d | Sibas | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,994 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 340d | karenkarl | 260-279 | BuyYes100¢ | $1,580 | +$8 +0.5% | 20 |
| 340d |  Prexpect2 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $5,540 | +$682 +12% | 24 |
| 340d | zwxokx | 280-299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,604 | +$14 +0.6% | 20 |
| 340d | ashselly3 fills | 260-279 | SellYes67¢ → 100¢ | $6,295 | −$3,078 −49% | — |
| 340d | clayjosn1 | 260-279 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,544 | +$24 +0.7% | 20 |
| 340d | cigarettes2 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,709 | +$93 +2.0% | 21 |
| 340d | Oksy333 | 280-299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,190 | +$30 +1.4% | 20 |
| 340d | Galina44 | 280-299 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,876 | +$38 +2.0% | 21 |
| 340d |  OkieDokiePeon | 260-279 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$106 +2.1% | 21 |
| 340d | Losss00 | 280-299 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,848 | +$83 +2.9% | 21 |
| 340d | Fuzzy-Peace | 260-279 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,049 | +$127 +4.2% | 21 |
| 340d | glenncal2 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $4,090 | +$247 +6.0% | 22 |
| 340d | noovd2 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $2,927 | +$857 +29% | 28 |
| 340d | ashselly2 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $3,561 | +$1,065 +30% | 28 |
| 340d | Pobby | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,231 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 340d | Pobby | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,249 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 340d | LinusB | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,789 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 340d | Constancefung | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,631 | −$7 −0.2% | — |
| 340d | LinusB | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 340d |  nijikaijichi | 280-299 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,001 | −$111 −11% | — |
| 340d | Annica5 fills | 260-279 | SellYes59¢ → 100¢ | $17,339 | −$12,128 −70% | — |
| 340d | Prexpect | 260-279 | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,400 | −$100 −7.2% | — |
| 340d |  Cloverince | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,188 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
OuchMyBalls10,000 shares
annoyinglowie5,700 shares
4.562,217 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from November 11 12:00 PM ET to November 18, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 260-279 means the market gives it about 100%.