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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 200-219 | 100% | +95 pts | +87 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | −2 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −1 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −48 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | +43 pts | +68 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −1 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | 0 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | 0 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | 0 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 332d |  Annica | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $8,492 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 332d | EldyNay | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,190 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 332d |  welsing | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,018 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 332d | ashselly | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,859 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 332d |  VibeTrader | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,450 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 332d |  Fablurou | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,087 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 332d | Town15 | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,725 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 332d | XIHSIHDA | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,792 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 332d | 0xredpanda | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,171 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 332d |  MrLucker | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,396 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 333d | Sleepy-Mansard | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,125 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 333d |  JAHODA | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,722 | +$16 +0.1% | 20 |
| 333d | Gourdin | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,497 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 333d | flyingpiglj | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,764 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 333d | easymoney3 | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,989 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 333d | yyyyyyyyyyyyyyang | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,034 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 333d | karenkarl | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,377 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 333d | yourobviousmom | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,333 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 333d |  ChaeChae2 fills | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $13,349 | +$22 +0.2% | 20 |
| 333d | kingqj109 | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,992 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 333d |  alphagogogo | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,541 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 333d | yshi | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,702 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 333d |  PredictionYogi | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,233 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 333d | SunnySam | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,168 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 333d | forestk | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,223 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 333d | HennesyHoney | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,652 | −$11 −0.2% | — |
| 333d | costcostaff01 | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,994 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 333d |  Cloverince | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,589 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 333d | yokali2 | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,134 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 333d | kmldV3 | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,413 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 333d | leiger3 fills | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,609 | +$32 +0.3% | 20 |
| 333d |  OuchMyBalls | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,596 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 333d |  Prexpect3 fills | 200-219 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $11,797 | +$313 +2.7% | 21 |
| 333d | -Rocket- | 200-219 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,533 | −$8 −0.5% | — |
| 333d | Senpustaja | 200-219 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,046 | −$14 −0.7% | — |
| 333d | noovd2 fills | 200-219 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $13,527 | +$114 +0.8% | 20 |
| 333d | tamiyascales | 200-219 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,012 | −$12 −1.2% | — |
| 333d | BeepBopBoopBop | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,376 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 333d | Vibrant-Distinction | 200-219 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$27 +1.3% | 20 |
| 333d |  FatBB | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,964 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 333d | Senpustaja | 200-219 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$60 +3.0% | 21 |
| 333d | jeyjeyjey | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,000 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 333d | Town15 | 200-219 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,568 | +$60 +3.8% | 21 |
| 333d | influenz.eth4 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,165 | +$48 +1.2% | 20 |
| 333d | influenz.eth | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,300 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 333d | Mister-Noob | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,199 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 333d | xvosteg | 200-219 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,271 | −$109 −8.5% | — |
| 333d | Aggravating-TreatyNew account | 200-219 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,025 | +$90 +8.8% | 25 |
| 333d | KingOfLol | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,885 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 333d | XIHSIHDA | 200-219 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,596 | +$181 +11% | 23 |
| 333d | 0x265f…a448 | 200-219 | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,304 | −$196 −15% | — |
| 333d | human-bean2 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $8,661 | +$286 +3.3% | 21 |
| 333d | leiger2 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,405 | +$19 +0.6% | 20 |
| 333d | Wonderful-Championship | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,338 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 333d |  JackSparrowSentMe | 200-219 | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $2,677 | −$303 −11% | — |
| 333d | xwsh | 200-219 | SellYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,499 | −$376 −25% | — |
| 333d | LEPM | 200-219 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,057 | +$129 +12% | 24 |
| 333d | BlackRocket | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,125 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 333d | Savraser | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,007 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 333d | Bashkar | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,053 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
OuchMyBalls8,888 shares
dumbass24,892 shares
0xbobobo.eth1,467 shares
EMMEXX1,000 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from November 18 12:00 PM ET to November 25, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 200-219 means the market gives it about 100%.