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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1000+ | 100% | 0 pts | +2 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 8d |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 160-179 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 180-199 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 200-219 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 220-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 240-259 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 500-519 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 520-539 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 580-599 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 600-619 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 620-639 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 640-659 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 660-679 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 680-699 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 700-719 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 720-739 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 740-759 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 760-779 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 780-799 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 800-839 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 840-879 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 880-919 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 920-959 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| 960-999 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 8d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d | Poory | 1000+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,978 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 2d | niuniuhgir | 960-999 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,255 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 3d | CakeBake | 1000+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,993 | +$8 +0.4% | 20 |
| 3d |  FFIE. | 1000+ | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,558 | −$14 −0.9% | — |
| 10d | lilith2752 fills | 1000+ | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $2,080 | +$174 +8.4% | 20 |
| 11d | FFIE.2 fills | 1000+ | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $4,418 | +$1,083 +25% | 20 |
| 16d | Bitgod | 460-479 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,119 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 16d | Bitgod | 480-499 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,299 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 23d |  vamnizar | 880-919 | BuyNo79¢ → 100¢ | $1,119 | +$303 +27% | 20 |
OswaldJeames1 shares
leleko2k1,033 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of October 2026. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 1000+ means the market gives it about 100%.