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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 260-279 | 17% | +3 pts | — | 16¢ · 17¢ (1¢) | $3.74K | in 6d |
| 280-299 | 17% | +1 pts | — | 16¢ · 17¢ (1¢) | $2.78K | in 6d |
| 300-319 | 14% | +2 pts | — | 14¢ · 15¢ (1¢) | $2.81K | in 6d |
| 240-259 | 11% | −2 pts | — | 10¢ · 11¢ (1¢) | $3.01K | in 6d |
| 320-339 | 10% | — | — | 9¢ · 10¢ (1¢) | $3.01K | in 6d |
| 340-359 | 7% | 0 pts | — | 7¢ · 8¢ (1¢) | $2.4K | in 6d |
| 220-239 | 7% | −3 pts | — | 6¢ · 7¢ (1¢) | $2.11K | in 6d |
| 360-379 | 5% | 0 pts | — | 5¢ · 5¢ (<1¢) | $2.96K | in 6d |
| 200-219 | 3% | −2 pts | — | 3¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $3.96K | in 6d |
| 380-399 | 3% | 0 pts | — | 3¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $1.81K | in 6d |
| 400-419 | 2% | −1 pts | — | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | $1.63K | in 6d |
| 420-439 | 1% | −1 pts | — | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $2.6K | in 6d |
| 180-199 | 1% | −2 pts | — | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $6.47K | in 6d |
| 440-459 | 1% | 0 pts | — | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $3.41K | in 6d |
| 160-179 | <1% | −1 pts | — | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $5.82K | in 6d |
| 460-479 | <1% | 0 pts | — | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $3.21K | in 6d |
| 480-499 | <1% | 0 pts | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $2.6K | in 6d |
| 500-519 | <1% | 0 pts | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $2.19K | in 6d |
| 120-139 | <1% | 0 pts | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $6.1K | in 6d |
| 140-159 | <1% | 0 pts | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $10.9K | in 6d |
| 520-539 | <1% | 0 pts | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $2.16K | in 6d |
| 60-79 | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 6d |
| 80-99 | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 6d |
| 100-119 | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $6K | in 6d |
| 540-559 | <1% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | $6 | in 6d |
| 560-579 | <1% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | $100 | in 6d |
| 580+ | <1% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | $2.91K | in 6d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20h |  Mei-ji | 580+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,620 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 3d |  TweetPulse.Live | 80-99 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,205 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
Mei-ji3,556 sharesTweetPulse.Live3,208 shares
Kaiji1231,483 shares
ComradeCat1,003 shares
Haradwaith75 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 23 12:00 PM ET to October 30, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 17¢ for 260-279 means the market gives it about 17%.