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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65-89 | 37% | — | — | 31¢ · 43¢ (12¢) | $95 | in 4d |
| 40-64 | 37% | — | — | 35¢ · 38¢ (3¢) | $115 | in 4d |
| 90-114 | 21% | — | — | 14¢ · 27¢ (13¢) | $62 | in 4d |
| 115-139 | 9% | — | — | 4¢ · 13¢ (9¢) | $72 | in 4d |
| <40 | 8% | — | — | 6¢ · 10¢ (4¢) | $103 | in 4d |
| 140-164 | 3% | — | — | 1¢ · 4¢ (3¢) | $121 | in 4d |
| 165-189 | 2% | — | — | <1¢ · 3¢ (3¢) | $51 | in 4d |
| 190-214 | 1% | — | — | <1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | $51 | in 4d |
| 215-239 | 1% | — | — | <1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | $51 | in 4d |
| 240+ | 1% | — | — | <1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | $51 | in 4d |
No trades of $1,000 or more lately.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 26 12:00 PM ET to October 28, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 37¢ for 65-89 means the market gives it about 37%.