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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 240-259 | 100% | +60 pts | +87 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | −49 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −1 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −6 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −27 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −9 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −2 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −1 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 375d |  Elonurmom | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,020 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 375d | Matelleti | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,002 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 375d | Poiuztrewq | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,399 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 375d | Antonyyan | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,139 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 375d | astromage | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,798 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 375d | jesuschristcoded | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,710 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 375d |  Prexpect | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,487 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 375d | dafa31fdhvbsd | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,900 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 375d | haeju | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,777 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 375d | colinkane | 240-259 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,101 | −$7 −0.6% | — |
| 375d |  Gustav4 | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,034 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 375d |  ElonSpam | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,025 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 375d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 240-259 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $3,228 | +$266 +8.3% | 22 |
| 375d |  Annica2 fills | 240-259 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,417 | +$26 +1.1% | 20 |
| 375d | Annica | 240-259 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,306 | −$60 −4.6% | — |
| 375d | 0x265f…a448 | 240-259 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,058 | −$34 −3.2% | — |
| 375d | fjj47888 | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,659 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 375d | fjj47888 | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,661 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 375d | Monkas | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,435 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 375d | Prexpect | 240-259 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,007 | +$156 +7.8% | 22 |
| 375d | Gustav4 | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,948 | +$52 +1.0% | 20 |
| 375d | colinkane | 240-259 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,002 | +$105 +11% | 23 |
| 375d | gresgtqa | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,001 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 375d | Matelleti | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,015 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 375d | cipherpilot | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,484 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 375d | Ample-Cousin | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,498 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 375d | Ample-Cousin | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,500 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 375d | Ecstatic-Poster | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 375d | Ecstatic-Poster | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 375d | ljh90 | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,337 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 375d | ljh90 | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,338 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 375d |  IMPORTANT | 220-239 | BuyYes70¢ → 0¢ | $1,027 | −$1,027 −100% | 28 |
| 375d | ujtygher | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,029 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 375d | ujtygher | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,030 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 375d | jesuschristcoded | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,704 | +$8 +0.3% | 20 |
| 375d | jesuschristcoded | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,704 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 375d | ElonSpam5 fills | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $36,930 | +$58 +0.2% | 20 |
| 375d | glarity2 fills | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,072 | +$40 +0.3% | 20 |
| 375d | hopetogohome | 200-219 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,661 | −$27 −0.6% | — |
| 375d | fdgss | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,797 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 375d | fdgss | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,800 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 375d | pol762 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,952 | +$83 +2.1% | 20 |
| 375d | jeyjeyjey | 260-279 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $4,816 | +$429 +8.9% | 22 |
| 375d | jeyjeyjey | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $79,494 | +$80 +0.1% | 20 |
| 375d | BondiBaddie | 200-219 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,399 | −$20 −1.4% | — |
| 376d | Matelleti | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,502 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 376d | jesuschristcoded | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,691 | +$16 +0.6% | 20 |
| 376d | scusi | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,494 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 376d | minicake | 280-299 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,007 | +$30 +3.0% | 20 |
| 376d | fg001 | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,406 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 376d | fg001 | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,408 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 376d | Matelleti | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,500 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 376d | Matelleti | 200-219 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,421 | −$125 −8.8% | — |
| 376d | tyaatr | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,047 | −$4 −0.4% | — |
| 376d | tyaatr | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,050 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 376d | pyty6yuvbbhy | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,469 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 376d | pyty6yuvbbhy | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,472 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 376d | e6yuipopht | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,196 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 376d | e6yuipopht | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,197 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 376d | Annica2 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $10,689 | +$689 +6.4% | 21 |
OuchMyBalls5,000 shares
Zighy1,607 shares
Cookedtan371 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 7 12:00 PM ET to October 14, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 240-259 means the market gives it about 100%.