Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 220-239 | 100% | +80 pts | +87 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | 0 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −12 pts | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −43 pts | −18 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −63 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −3 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31d | hulitest2025 | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,060 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 31d | Poiuztrewq | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,346 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 31d |  Apatta.hl | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,318 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 31d |  hirichzhou | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,696 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 31d |  Henryxlsurf | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,261 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 31d | Sarths | 200-219 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,099 | −$21 −1.0% | — |
| 31d | startrader | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,479 | +$55 +1.0% | 20 |
| 31d | Sarths | 200-219 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,960 | +$160 +8.2% | 23 |
| 31d | Actual-Ladle | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,568 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 32d | Ronke | 220-239 | SellYes26¢ → 100¢ | $1,096 | −$3,136 −286% | — |
| 32d | CakeBake | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,069 | +$6 +0.6% | 20 |
| 32d | RockSolidBond | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,099 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 32d | Actual-Ladle | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,550 | +$21 +0.6% | 20 |
| 32d |  upont | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,545 | +$16 +1.0% | 20 |
| 32d | upont | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,495 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 32d | rw-mehtape | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,379 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 32d | RootWoot | 240-259 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,600 | +$47 +2.9% | 21 |
| 32d |  PredictionYogi | 220-239 | BuyYes60¢ → 100¢ | $1,395 | +$930 +67% | 28 |
| 32d | Bigggggggg | 240-259 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,618 | +$59 +3.6% | 21 |
| 32d | Bigggggggg | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,670 | +$7 +0.4% | 20 |
| 32d | Ronke | 220-239 | BuyYes41¢ → 100¢ | $1,784 | +$2,543 +142% | 29 |
| 32d | Bigggggggg | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,675 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 32d | Ronke | 200-219 | SellYes58¢ → 0¢ | $1,878 | +$1,878 +100% | — |
| 32d | CakeBake2 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,179 | +$20 +0.4% | 20 |
| 32d | CakeBake | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 32d | onekey02 | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,823 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 32d | Intelligent-Tax | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 32d |  Prexpect2 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,268 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 32d | Actual-Ladle | 180-199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,530 | +$29 +0.8% | 20 |
| 32d | crashhbandii7 | 220-239 | BuyYes34¢ → 100¢ | $1,313 | +$2,568 +196% | 29 |
| 32d |  TweetPulse.Live | 180-199 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $4,333 | +$311 +7.2% | 22 |
| 32d | d008 | 180-199 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$133 +13% | 23 |
| 32d | upont3 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,786 | +$14 +0.3% | 20 |
| 32d | upont2 fills | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,197 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 32d |  Elonurmom | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,114 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 32d | zhenni | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 32d | upont2 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,662 | +$15 +0.3% | 20 |
| 33d |  Boss7 | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,994 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 33d | pykue | 180-199 | BuyYes50¢ → 0¢ | $1,008 | −$1,008 −100% | 25 |
| 33d | Apatta.hl | 160-179 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,087 | +$23 +2.1% | 20 |
| 33d | momo513 | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,199 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 33d | carboyant2 fills | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,008 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 33d | Boss72 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 33d | Oahb | 220-239 | BuyNo87¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 22 |
| 34d | ProsperIntelligence | 220-239 | BuyNo88¢ → 0¢ | $1,479 | −$1,479 −100% | 22 |
| 34d | ellio8989 | 180-199 | BuyYes41¢ → 0¢ | $1,580 | −$1,580 −100% | 26 |
| 34d | CakeBake | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 34d | Elonurmom3 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $4,706 | +$777 +17% | 21 |
| 34d | Boss7 | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,761 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 35d | Bitgod | 100-119 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,079 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 35d | bipbipbop | 100-119 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,368 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 35d | carboyant | 100-119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,753 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 35d | Icannotwin | 120-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 35d | akula202i | 220-239 | BuyNo85¢ → 0¢ | $1,040 | −$1,040 −100% | 21 |
| 36d | CakeBake | 60-79 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 37d | CakeBake | 80-99 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,823 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 37d | bipbipbop | 320-339 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,214 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 |
| 38d | Boss72 fills | 500+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,488 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 38d | hulitest2025 | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,090 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 38d | hirichzhou | 420-439 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,774 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
KVBA7319 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 15 12:00 PM ET to September 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 220-239 means the market gives it about 100%.