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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 240-259 | 100% | +71 pts | +96 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | −2 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | −16 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | −17 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −25 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −33 pts | −18 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −27 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −41 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −48 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −9 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −2 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 385d |  Lazare-Zhong | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,009 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 385d | Bitgod | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,398 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 385d |  ElonSpam | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,040 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 385d |  Annica4 fills | 240-259 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $6,319 | +$169 +2.7% | 21 |
| 385d |  Gustav4 | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,980 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 385d | glarity | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 385d | ElonSpam | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,985 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 385d | DonaldMusk13 fills | 240-259 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $8,639 | +$1,408 +16% | 25 |
| 385d |  Prexpect2 fills | 240-259 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,346 | +$166 +4.9% | 22 |
| 385d | dropthevictor | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,005 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 385d |  q19 | 240-259 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,600 | +$37 +1.0% | 20 |
| 385d | leiger | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,619 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 385d | Gustav4 | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,990 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 385d | diseax | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,137 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 385d | xbsuwrkfmdl37 | 260-279 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,682 | +$8 +0.5% | 20 |
| 385d | Old-Fashioned-Outset | 240-259 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $2,132 | +$368 +17% | 26 |
| 385d | Annica | 220-239 | BuyYes59¢ → 0¢ | $1,271 | −$1,271 −100% | 30 |
| 386d | Old-Fashioned-Outset | 260-279 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $11,484 | +$249 +2.2% | 21 |
| 386d | ElonSpam5 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $35,010 | +$73 +0.2% | 20 |
| 386d | diseax | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,137 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 386d | xbsuwrkfmdl37 | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,421 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 386d | astromage | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,658 | +$13 +0.1% | 20 |
| 386d | xbsuwrkfmdl374 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,183 | +$13 +0.1% | 20 |
| 386d |  Armlet | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,100 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 386d | uuuwuuu | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,002 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 386d | LazyWanker | 240-259 | SellYes62¢ → 100¢ | $1,493 | −$913 −61% | — |
| 386d | bomeer | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,004 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 386d | HardlandSus2 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,441 | +$259 +11% | 23 |
| 386d | Annica7 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $14,375 | +$76 +0.5% | 20 |
| 386d | Annica2 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,361 | +$66 +1.5% | 20 |
| 386d | zeus76 | 280-299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$18 +0.6% | 20 |
| 386d | ElonSpam4 fills | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $47,946 | +$48 +0.1% | 20 |
| 386d |  ULtra001 | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,386 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 386d |  HolyMoses72 fills | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,144 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 386d |  imp | 200-219 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,784 | +$226 +8.1% | 22 |
| 386d | zeus76 | 300-319 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$45 +0.9% | 20 |
| 386d | mcamerinop | 220-239 | BuyYes58¢ → 0¢ | $2,202 | −$2,202 −100% | 28 |
| 386d |  Elonurmom | 200-219 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,503 | +$126 +8.4% | 22 |
| 386d | Happyjoe | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,578 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 386d |  Debosnys | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,007 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 386d | Debosnys | 440-459 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,831 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 386d | zeus76 | 220-239 | BuyYes46¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 25 |
| 386d | AltExplorer | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,498 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 386d |  YMJ | 440-459 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,324 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 386d | Simmelariii | 440-459 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,299 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 386d | ElonSpam4 fills | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,942 | +$20 +0.2% | 20 |
| 387d | ElonSpam2 fills | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,547 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 387d | Annica | 200-219 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $2,155 | +$268 +12% | 22 |
| 387d | Annica2 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,544 | +$41 +1.2% | 20 |
| 387d | 0rocky007 | 460-479 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,413 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 387d | scusi | 460-479 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,500 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 387d | diseax | 460-479 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 387d |  twopac | 180-199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,513 | +$9 +0.6% | 20 |
| 387d | imp | 180-199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,845 | +$23 +0.6% | 20 |
| 387d | Abandoned-Counsel2 fills | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,282 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 387d | shenyu13 | 200-219 | BuyYes42¢ → 0¢ | $1,154 | −$1,154 −100% | 25 |
| 387d | secondSeek2 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,847 | +$202 +4.2% | 21 |
| 387d | LazyWanker | 200-219 | BuyYes39¢ → 0¢ | $1,311 | −$1,311 −100% | 26 |
| 387d | Elonurmom | 140-159 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,999 | +$31 +1.6% | 20 |
| 387d | Annica | 200-219 | BuyYes23¢ → 0¢ | $2,003 | −$2,003 −100% | 29 |
OuchMyBalls20,000 shares
HokiHoki200 shares
WhiteLivesMatter200 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 26 12:00 PM ET to October 3, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 240-259 means the market gives it about 100%.