Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $500M | 12% | 0 pts | +7 pts | 10¢ · 14¢ (3¢) | — | in 434d |
| $100M | 21% | +2 pts | — | 19¢ · 22¢ (3¢) | — | in 434d |
| $2B | 3% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 2¢ · 3¢ (2¢) | — | in 434d |
| $1B | 4% | 0 pts | −2 pts | 3¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | — | in 434d |
| $200M | 21% | +3 pts | — | 20¢ · 21¢ (1¢) | — | in 434d |
| $800M | 6% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 5¢ · 7¢ (2¢) | — | in 434d |
| $600M | 5% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 4¢ · 6¢ (2¢) | — | in 434d |
| $50M | 36% | −2 pts | — | 35¢ · 36¢ (1¢) | $180 | in 434d |
| $300M | 16% | +4 pts | +4 pts | 15¢ · 17¢ (2¢) | $148 | in 434d |
| $400M | 13% | +1 pts | +2 pts | 12¢ · 13¢ (1¢) | $86.9 | in 434d |
| $25M | 43% | −7 pts | −14 pts | 42¢ · 43¢ (1¢) | $60 | in 434d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 139d | 0x16351b85A6160e7A3759Ec20603e7C14e424562 | $25M | BuyYes65¢ → 43¢ | $2,322 | −$798 −34% | 7 |
| 191d | kirwiswiemi | $500M | BuyYes42¢ → 12¢ | $1,925 | −$1,379 −72% | 3 |
vonhalen30 shares
0xvalmir21 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 12¢ for $500M means the market gives it about 12%.