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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $800M | 11% | −1 pts | −1 pts | 10¢ · 11¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| $2B | 2% | 0 pts | −2 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| $500M | 22% | +2 pts | +2 pts | 20¢ · 23¢ (3¢) | $2.33K | in 69d |
| $150M | 72% | +6 pts | +6 pts | 69¢ · 74¢ (5¢) | $1.59K | in 69d |
| $300M | 40% | — | +1 pts | 39¢ · 40¢ (1¢) | $774 | in 69d |
| $3B | 2% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 2¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $87.4 | in 69d |
| $1B | 5% | — | −1 pts | 4¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | $75 | in 69d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d |  alanhutton4 fills | $300M | SellNo57¢ → 61¢ | $7,223 | −$495 −6.9% | — |
| 11d |  gatonekki | $300M | SellNo57¢ → 61¢ | $1,147 | −$63 −5.4% | — |
| 21d | retokloreretpo | $500M | SellYes20¢ → 22¢ | $10,886 | −$928 −8.5% | — |
| 21d | MegaKong | $150M | BuyYes55¢ → 72¢ | $1,270 | +$381 +30% | 7 |
| 21d | 12863 | $150M | SellYes43¢ → 72¢ | $1,647 | −$1,117 −68% | — |
| 22d | tryingmyluckhere3 fills | $500M | BuyNo71¢ → 79¢ | $6,350 | +$671 +11% | 7 |
| 24d | insiderrzzz7 fills | $300M | BuyNo60¢ → 61¢ | $25,348 | +$80 +0.3% | 7 |
| 31d | 0xc67c310db8677fdbb360ba40eeecb6690c809ad5 | $150M | SellYes74¢ → 72¢ | $1,012 | +$35 +3.4% | — |
| 32d | alanhutton2 fills | $500M | SellNo81¢ → 79¢ | $4,259 | +$137 +3.2% | — |
| 32d | Rickz88 | $500M | SellNo76¢ → 79¢ | $1,241 | −$41 −3.3% | — |
| 33d | purplegatto2 fills | $300M | BuyNo62¢ → 61¢ | $6,171 | −$146 −2.4% | 7 |
| 34d |  benjaversee | $300M | BuyYes42¢ → 40¢ | $1,000 | −$71 −7.1% | 7 |
| 34d | KishoAriiii | $300M | BuyNo59¢ → 61¢ | $1,150 | +$29 +2.5% | 7 |
| 37d | cosmicmicrowavebackground2 fills | $500M | SellNo81¢ → 79¢ | $6,348 | +$219 +3.4% | — |
| 40d | thugstrade | $500M | SellYes14¢ → 22¢ | $1,119 | −$637 −57% | — |
| 55d |  alphaalii2 fills | $150M | SellYes56¢ → 72¢ | $2,410 | −$641 −27% | — |
| 59d | Kl1023yx3 fills | $500M | SellYes15¢ → 22¢ | $9,088 | −$3,812 −42% | — |
| 61d |  Zarshka | $150M | BuyNo57¢ → 29¢ | $1,833 | −$910 −50% | 7 |
| 62d | alanhutton3 fills | $150M | BuyNo49¢ → 29¢ | $5,051 | −$2,139 −42% | 7 |
| 62d | alanhutton5 fills | $300M | BuyNo69¢ → 61¢ | $6,914 | −$864 −12% | 7 |
| 62d | Kl1023yx17 fills | $300M | SellYes37¢ → 40¢ | $72,853 | −$5,639 −7.7% | — |
| 63d | Winged-Kiss | $150M | SellNo29¢ | $1,447 | +$2 +0.1% | — |
| 63d | liquidityp00l2 fills | $150M | SellNo23¢ → 29¢ | $5,081 | −$1,189 −23% | — |
| 65d | Malvix | $300M | SellNo65¢ → 61¢ | $2,403 | +$183 +7.6% | — |
| 67d | tryingmyluckhere | $150M | SellYes72¢ | $1,154 | +$8 +0.7% | — |
| 68d | Kl1023yx15 fills | $150M | SellYes71¢ → 72¢ | $84,818 | −$162 −0.2% | — |
| 70d | Winged-Kiss | $300M | SellNo63¢ → 61¢ | $1,134 | +$37 +3.3% | — |
| 70d | Kl1023yx18 fills | $150M | BuyYes73¢ → 72¢ | $46,598 | −$1,045 −2.2% | 6 |
| 71d | thugstrade | $300M | SellYes33¢ → 40¢ | $1,683 | −$302 −18% | — |
| 71d | Laurenman | $1B | SellNo96¢ → 95¢ | $1,252 | +$13 +1.1% | — |
| 75d | liquidityp00l | $300M | SellNo57¢ → 61¢ | $6,210 | −$381 −6.1% | — |
| 77d | Masol2 fills | $800M | BuyNo91¢ → 90¢ | $4,700 | −$99 −2.1% | 2 |
| 78d | Tipsterman | $1B | BuyNo96¢ → 95¢ | $1,632 | −$9 −0.6% | 3 |
| 82d | Kl1023yx37 fills | $300M | BuyYes46¢ → 40¢ | $104,220 | −$14,678 −14% | 11 |
| 91d | Laurenman | $3B | SellNo98¢ | $1,221 | −$6 −0.5% | — |
| 95d | paul4543 | $500M | SellNo73¢ → 79¢ | $1,029 | −$74 −7.2% | — |
| 98d | Crisp-Ephemera | $500M | SellNo79¢ | $1,206 | +$8 +0.6% | — |
| 103d | jimmyjpeg | $800M | SellNo86¢ → 90¢ | $2,376 | −$108 −4.5% | — |
| 103d | jimmyjpeg | $500M | SellNo71¢ → 79¢ | $1,319 | −$135 −10% | — |
| 103d | jimmyjpeg | $1B | SellNo93¢ → 95¢ | $1,262 | −$37 −3.0% | — |
| 104d | Laurenman | $3B | BuyNo97¢ → 98¢ | $1,052 | +$13 +1.2% | 3 |
| 104d | 0xaddb…51ad2 fills | $300M | SellYes49¢ → 40¢ | $5,129 | +$954 +19% | — |
| 109d |  AmirsadeghSa | $500M | SellNo68¢ → 79¢ | $1,192 | −$184 −15% | — |
| 112d | liquidityp00l2 fills | $150M | BuyNo21¢ → 29¢ | $2,510 | +$862 +34% | 12 |
| 113d | gggg5 | $150M | BuyYes79¢ → 72¢ | $1,200 | −$116 −9.7% | 5 |
| 113d | YYY55 | $300M | BuyYes49¢ → 40¢ | $1,274 | −$247 −19% | 7 |
| 113d | retokloreretpo | $500M | BuyYes34¢ → 22¢ | $2,240 | −$808 −36% | 10 |
| 113d | BetterHold | $300M | BuyYes49¢ → 40¢ | $2,916 | −$558 −19% | 7 |
| 113d | EP10 | $150M | BuyYes77¢ → 72¢ | $3,080 | −$220 −7.1% | 6 |
| 113d | Rickz88 | $300M | SellNo53¢ → 61¢ | $1,701 | −$241 −14% | — |
| 125d | 0x16351b85A6160e7A3759Ec20603e7C14e4245622 fills | $500M | SellNo71¢ → 79¢ | $5,467 | −$600 −11% | — |
| 125d | 0x16351b85A6160e7A3759Ec20603e7C14e4245622 fills | $300M | SellNo51¢ → 61¢ | $7,205 | −$1,287 −18% | — |
| 127d | tradexplorer | $300M | BuyNo51¢ → 61¢ | $1,868 | +$348 +19% | 7 |
| 127d | pp101 | $500M | BuyNo70¢ → 79¢ | $1,138 | +$138 +12% | 7 |
| 129d | 0x16351b85A6160e7A3759Ec20603e7C14e4245622 fills | $500M | BuyNo74¢ → 79¢ | $2,034 | +$132 +6.5% | 6 |
| 129d | 0x16351b85A6160e7A3759Ec20603e7C14e424562 | $300M | BuyNo60¢ → 61¢ | $6,778 | +$96 +1.4% | 7 |
| 132d |  Hyperlong3 fills | $300M | BuyNo63¢ → 61¢ | $5,373 | −$189 −3.5% | 7 |
| 136d | 0xaddb…51ad2 fills | $300M | BuyYes42¢ → 40¢ | $5,996 | −$418 −7.0% | 10 |
| 137d | Sylvertrades | $800M | BuyNo89¢ → 90¢ | $4,973 | +$13 +0.3% | 2 |
| 137d | imjustalarp | $150M | BuyYes70¢ → 72¢ | $1,059 | +$23 +2.1% | 7 |
fleeth25,000 shares
realtimy10,916 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 11¢ for $800M means the market gives it about 11%.