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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2B | 2% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | — | in 69d |
| $100M | 5% | −1 pts | +3 pts | 4¢ · 6¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| $1B | 2% | — | 0 pts | 2¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | — | in 69d |
| $50M | 5% | — | −1 pts | 4¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | — | — |
| $300M | 3% | — | 0 pts | 2¢ · 3¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| $500M | 2% | 0 pts | +1 pts | 1¢ · 3¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| $800M | 2% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| $25M | 12% | +2 pts | −12 pts | 9¢ · 14¢ (5¢) | $155 | — |
| $5M | 13% | +3 pts | −28 pts | 12¢ · 14¢ (2¢) | $115 | in 69d |
| $10M | 10% | −1 pts | −34 pts | 9¢ · 11¢ (2¢) | $36.4 | — |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d | 0x51b5a0c12bf89886c79723a0a5cec00404772ef4 | $500M | BuyNo96¢ → 98¢ | $1,000 | +$24 +2.4% | 2 |
| 8d | 0x51b5a0c12bf89886c79723a0a5cec00404772ef4 | $300M | BuyNo96¢ → 98¢ | $1,346 | +$22 +1.7% | 2 |
| 64d | egas2 fills | $25M | SellNo91¢ → 89¢ | $6,005 | +$183 +3.1% | — |
| 95d |  BlackswanDefi | $25M | SellNo80¢ → 89¢ | $1,142 | −$127 −11% | — |
| 209d | egas | $25M | SellYes41¢ → 12¢ | $3,789 | +$2,728 +72% | — |
| 212d |  Parz1vaI | $100M | BuyNo85¢ → 95¢ | $1,377 | +$149 +11% | 2 |
| 238d | egas | $25M | BuyYes82¢ → 12¢ | $2,382 | −$2,048 −86% | 5 |
| 253d | qwetdfg | $2B | SellNo99¢ → 98¢ | $1,541 | +$8 +0.5% | — |
| 253d | 25rtrygd | $2B | SellNo99¢ → 98¢ | $1,586 | +$8 +0.5% | — |
| 253d | t6jerst | $2B | SellNo99¢ → 98¢ | $1,527 | +$8 +0.5% | — |
| 253d | qwetdfg | $2B | BuyNo99¢ → 98¢ | $1,547 | −$8 −0.5% | 2 |
| 253d | t6jerst | $2B | BuyNo99¢ → 98¢ | $1,527 | −$8 −0.5% | 2 |
| 253d | 25rtrygd | $2B | BuyNo99¢ → 98¢ | $1,586 | −$8 −0.5% | 2 |
| 253d | fdsg32f1d9 | $2B | BuyNo99¢ → 98¢ | $1,520 | −$8 −0.5% | 2 |
| 253d | q3534rd | $2B | BuyNo99¢ → 98¢ | $1,540 | −$8 −0.5% | 2 |
| 253d | d4w352qvgtf4ed | $2B | BuyNo99¢ → 98¢ | $1,600 | −$8 −0.5% | 2 |
| 291d | hunter987 | $1B | SellNo98¢ | $1,708 | −$13 −0.8% | — |
| 307d | sweetenthepot | $50M | BuyNo68¢ → 95¢ | $2,992 | +$1,199 +40% | 2 |
| 329d | S.T.F. | $2B | BuyNo99¢ → 98¢ | $1,043 | −$9 −0.9% | 2 |
Hyperlong1,300 shares
LornaPredicts273 shares
moksel2,940 shares
supaforecaster880 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Felix's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Felix Protocol doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 2¢ for $2B means the market gives it about 2%.